The ramblings of an Eternal Student of Life
. . . still studying and learning how to live

Latest Rambling Thoughts:
Saturday, February 22, 2020
Politics ...

As of tonight, Bernie Sanders has won the first three Democratic primary / caucuses – Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada. OK, well, Pete Buddigeig got 1 more delegate than Sanders from Iowa, even though Bernie got the most actual votes in the caucuses (all subject to a recount). Sanders narrowly beat Buttigeig in New Hampshire, but won convincingly in Nevada, with Joe Biden and Buttigeig in distant 2nd and 3rd place. The chances that Sanders will be the Democratic candidate in November are rising. The betting markets have Sanders in first place, and the probability model gives Sanders a 39% probability of getting more than half of the elected delegates, with only “no one” ahead of him at 41%. Former Mayor Bloomberg follows at 9%, with Joe Biden at 8%. All else are at 1% or less.

So, Donald Trump and his re-election staff are no doubt focusing their attention on defeating Sanders this November. A lot of pundits seem to feel that this should be doable for Trump; all that Trump has to do is to call Sanders a socialist and point to Sander’s one-time sympathies for Soviet Communism in order to beat him.

Personally, I don’t think that it will be all that easy for Trump. Sanders is doing pretty well thus far in the head-to-head polls against Trump. Furthermore, the general agreement that Trump will beat Sanders reminds me that the pundits were also quite sure at this point in 2016 that Donald Trump could never be nominated, or if he were, that he could never win.

However, if the economy stays strong and does not falter significantly due to the Asian COV virus (the “corona virus”), I personally believe that Sanders will lose to Trump — although not by that much. However, I think that Trump’s victory depends upon his campaign tactics regarding Sanders. If Trump and his campaign continues their present line of attack, i.e. casting Sanders as an unpatriotic socialist, then Trump might lose.

Bernie is a very charismatic and attractive candidate with a populist message, and thus he will be heard and considered by many of the same voters who supported Trump. Calling Sanders a socialist will not change the public’s impression of Sanders; his positions are already quite clear to everyone. A lot of people will continue to love him, no matter what he is called. Despite the general unpopularity of socialism in America, a lot of Americans have already forgiven Sanders for whatever ties to socialism that Sanders carries.

However, Trump CAN defeat Bernie through a series of ads and follow-on messaging showing that Bernie is going to affect average families, in unpleasant ways. I tried to imagine what some of those ads might look like. Here is what my mind came up with:

1.) Narrator: Under Bernie Sanders’ Green New Deal, the federal government will decide if your home uses too much energy. If so, they will require you to move out, and will pay you one-half of its value in return. You will need to buy a government-approved house – which will be a small cinder block square with tiny windows and solar panels and a wind turbine on the roof. Please enjoy the view from those tiny windows – your home will be right next to hundreds or thousands of other square homes exactly the same as yours. That’s the America that Bernie Sanders wants.
2.) Narrator: millions of American families look forward to their vacation trips each summer. Under Bernie Sanders, you won’t be able to use gasoline anymore. You will need to buy an electric vehicle, which needs to be recharged every 150 miles. That is, if you can find a recharging station. And even if you do, you will be using electricity produced by green energy sources, so it will cost you $75 for each re-charge. Oh, and don’t book an airline flight – that will cost many thousands of dollars.  Maybe you will then stay at home during the summer – but don’t plan to have a cookout — Bernie’s government won’t allow that because of greenhouse gasses from the grille.
3.) Or this — Narrator:Bernie Sanders wants to open the border and allow millions to enter the country each year, and will give all of them equal access to the government health care system that will replace your present health coverage. If you need a hip-replacement, you will be told to wait a few years. Ditto for a knee replacement. Even critical cancer and heart treatment will be delayed. Is this fair?
4.) This one is tailored for western Pennsylvania. Narrator: Wonderful new sources of energy are now being developed, including solar power and wind power. But the sun doesn’t always shine and the wind doesn’t always blow. To keep our lights on and our economy going, we need a source of power that is ready at all times. We have such a fuel, one that burns clean and efficient. Natural gas. Over the past 20 years, new methods of natural gas production have created thousands of jobs in Pennsylvania and have revived the American economy in the heartland. But now, Bernie Sanders says that we have to stop producing natural gas in our country.  We have made great progress in reviving our local economies under Donald Trump, but Bernie Sanders says that must be stopped immediately!
5.) Final idea: Narrator: Bernie Sanders wants to forgive the college debt for rich families, and make college free for everyone. But once the economy is pulled down by all of the new taxes that Sanders will impose, there will hardly be jobs for anyone.  Under Sanders, the average college graduate will have a nice certificate for her room, but will not have a good job to use it in. Does this make sense?  Bernie Sanders thinks so.

Right now, I’m not taking a position on who I will support in the event of a Sanders vs Trump race in November. I offer these ad ideas to both sides, as an idea of what we might see. If you support Sanders, you can take these ideas as a warning for what your candidate needs to prepare for. If you like Trump, perhaps you can use some of these ideas. I just offer these ads as a way to help predict whether Trump will or will not beat Sanders in November (assuming that comes to pass). If Trump’s campaign focuses on Sanders as an un-patriotic, Soviet-like socialist, they could lose. If they shift the spotlight to Sanders as a threat to personal prosperity and independence, then Trump will remain in the White House come January 20, 2021.

I have one more question to ponder here – can Bernie be tempted by the Devil? After his nomination in August, the Democratic establishment might get him in a room to talk. They will tell him that he is a very attractive candidate who really could beat Donald Trump. But not if he sticks to the same policy plan. The masses may love you now, Bernie, but by mid-October they will call you the grim reaper of all the good things in their lives that they have become accustomed to. We already know what the Trump campaign ads are going to do to you.  SO, BERNIE – would you possibly consider toning it down a bit, dialing back your purity, becoming more flexible on exactly what you plan to do as President and when you plan to do it? Even Elizabeth Warren admitted that there was some implementation flexibility on her plans for nationalized healthcare. But Bernie’s supporters immediately criticized her for this flexibility and accommodation of the private insurance sector.

I am going to guess that Bernie is too old and too committed to his ideals to change his ways, even if it becomes crystal clear to him that the masses will turn on him at the voting booth. In his career in the House and Senate, Bernie has shown some flexibility on gun control legislation, just enough to avoid being voted out of VT by all the hunters. I believe that Senator Amy Klobuchar briefly mentioned a gun control vote that Bernie went against her on, during the Nevada Democratic debate last week. But at this point in his life, I think that Bernie is through with compromising; he is now a rock star, a phenomenon! I believe that he would take the Democratic Party down for the sake of his dream and his purity, losing the House for the Dems and making them even weaker in the Senate.  And of course, no White House.

One more question, a more immediate one — is the Democratic “establishment” trying right now to coalesce and direct its energies to stopping Sanders from gaining the nomination? Personally, I don’t think that they are, nor that they will. I would guess that the “establishment” will just give up and let Bernie have it, let him raise his own funds, put the resources of the DNC and the big donors into limiting the damage in the House and Senate. I think that they plan to let the local Democratic House and Senate candidates deny Bernie and firewall themselves. Let the cock crow – “I’m not with him”. Let the candidates in tough districts for Democrats argue that they are a necessary and independent voice of reason, who will protect the nation from whichever lunatic occupies the White House.

But we’re still at an early stage, although Super Tuesday is only about 10 days away; after the votes are counted that night, about 38 percent of all elected delegates will have been selected. Things should really come in to focus at that point. Right now, Sanders is doing very well in the polls for the two biggest delegate states for Super Tuesday, i.e. Texas and California. I did not think it was possible even up to two weeks ago, but the Democratic party might actually select Bernie Sanders as its candidate for 2020. The 2016 campaign and election was a shocker, and the 2020 situation might be just as crazy and unpredictable!

P.S., March 9th — well, what a difference two weeks makes! The Establishment woke up and so did Joe Biden (with the help of a wake-up call from Rep. Jim Clyburn)! Bernie is not out yet by any means, but it’s going to be the fight of his life.

◊   posted by Jim G @ 10:52 pm      

No comments yet.

RSS feed for comments on this post.

Leave a comment:


To blog is human, to read someone's blog, divine
NEED TO WRITE ME? eternalstudent404 (thing above the 2) gmail (thing under the >) com - THE SIDEBAR - ABOUT ME - PHOTOS - RSS FEED - Atom
Church of the Churchless
Clear Mountain Zendo, Montclair
Fr. James S. Behrens, Monastery Photoblog
Of Particular Significance, Dr. Strassler's Physics Blog
My Cousin's 'Third Generation Family'
Weather Willy, NY Metro Area Weather Analysis
Spunkykitty's new Bunny Hopscotch; an indefatigable Aspie artist and now scolar!

Powered by WordPress