Current Affairs « The Ramblings of An Eternal Student of Life

Sunday, April 27, 2014

Current Affairs ... Photo ...

It seems that a coffee crisis is brewing these days. A drought in Brazil has caused wholesale coffee prices to jump significantly in the past month or two. And obviously, that means that retail prices at supermarkets, restaurants, fast food joints and coffee shops will follow their lead (they already have, actually; in my local supermarket, decaf beans can’t be had for under $9 a pound, whereas last year you could get the store brand for about $6.75). Brazil farmers still have some reserve bean supplies that they are releasing, which is temporarily keeping prices from spiking even further. But if the drought goes on, the legions of coffee junkies around the globe are going to really feel the pinch in the wallet.

Is this an early sign of the effects of global warming? Well, some people are saying that. I think we might need a few more years before making such a conclusion.

I myself was never a true coffee hound (I’m very sensitive to caffeine, » continue reading …

◊ posted by Jim G @ 5:53 pm Read Comment (1) / Leave a Comment

Thursday, April 24, 2014

◊ Catching Up, Part II: Identity Fraud and the Twilight Zone

Current Affairs ... Technology ...

OK, so I just told you (Part I, above) about the PHPBB web site forum that I’ve been working on. The other “project” soaking up all of my time for the past 10 or 11 days was a damage control effort, following an unanticipated internet identity fraud incident.

Yes, it finally happened to me. I realize that internet identity fraud is rampant, but of course I never thought it would happen to me. I am a careful user of the net, I don’t give away sensitive personal and financial information casually, I keep my computer clean with with anti-virus and anti-malware scans, I’m using Windows 8.1, my passwords are pretty good . . . but sorry, it was finally my turn. Somehow, someone got onto my PayPal account and wired a fairly large sum of money to an e-mail address in Europe. At first I blamed the Heartbleed security vulnerability, as it was being exposed right about when I got hacked. But no, PayPal claims it was never vulnerable to Heartbleed.

To be honest, I may have gotten fooled into giving away my PayPal credentials during an eBay purchase. I made several eBay purchases in February and early March, all using PayPal (not many payment options these days on eBay, given that » continue reading …

◊ posted by Jim G @ 7:59 pm Read Comment (1) / Leave a Comment

◊ Catching Up, Part III: Gravity Waves, Multiverses, and Skepticism

Current Affairs ... Religion ... Science ...

In my second post for tonight, above, I pondered how someone could be totally rejected by every computer and ATM and web site that they depend upon for the transactions of daily life. Perhaps an episode or two of on-line identity fraud (such as I recently experienced) could get you banned from all forms of computer-mediated transactions. For now, though, I think (and hope) that I still exist within the e-commerce / e-finance netherworld. So, let me proceed to offer some follow-up thoughts on a recent news item.

Which news item? Lots to choose from!!! The Ukraine crisis is still hot, flight 370 still has not been found, and since that incident another Asian transportation disaster happened (the South Korean ferryboat sinking). The US economy is getting better, perhaps; although new-home sales were still troublingly slow in March. (This could be partly the hang-over effect of a tough winter, but more ominously, it reflects the impact of slightly rising mortgage rates). President Obama, “new world man” that he is, is doing his best to ignore the 20th century leftover problems in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, and thus continues his “pivot to Asia” with a visit to Japan. Obamacare is finally working . . . maybe, but maybe not. Stay tuned. The US FDA is finally going after E-cigarettes, and the FTC is finally weighing in on net-neutrality. Global warming has been in a “pause” over the past 12 to 15 years, but most scientists are adamant that the worst of climate change is yet to come. So what important human event do I wish to comment on at this time?

Given my love for modern physics and my fascination with the inter-twined worlds of the tiny (quantum particles and fundamental forces) and the vastly large (cosmology), I want to retro back to the announcement made last month » continue reading …

◊ posted by Jim G @ 7:50 pm Read Comment (1) / Leave a Comment

Thursday, April 3, 2014

◊ Global Warming or Global Freezing?

Current Affairs ... Public Policy ... Science ...

Does it make any sense to talk about an ice age at a time when global warming makes all the headlines? According to the patterns of cold and warm eras over the past million years or so of earth history, we may be due for an new ice age. The general pattern for the past few million years of earth history has been 100,000 years of ice age followed by 12,000 years of temperate climate (an “interglacial” period).

We have been in an “interglacial” now for about that number of years, and thus could be due for the start of a new ice age. There are patterns called “Milankovich cycles” that are thought by some to trigger the warm and cold spells; these cycles involve the overall tilt of the earth relative to the sun (which varies over a 41,000 year period), the shape of the earth’s orbit (which changes over a period of 100,000 years) and the Earth’s ‘spin wobble’ (which varies the direction of the earth’s axis over a period of 26,000 years). Arguably our planet is re-entering a tilt / orbit / wobble combo where cold, dry conditions become the norm; the warm inter-glacial periods that we are used to have been more of an exception to the general rule of an ice-ball planet.

Recall that in the 1970s, the climate change articles were talking about the prospect of global cooling, along with the threats to human existence that it would pose. There were global cooling articles in both Time and Newsweek in the mid-70s. (However, that trend may have been driven by media bias for » continue reading …

◊ posted by Jim G @ 9:23 pm Read Comment (1) / Leave a Comment

Saturday, March 22, 2014

◊ Flight 370, the Ukraine, Gravity Waves — quite a week

Current Affairs ...

Just a few thoughts and comments on the world events of the past week. Well, I’ll start out with some non-thoughts about to the disappearance of Flight 370. I’m a born analyst and I’ve posted my theories on many a mystery on these pages. But that situation seems to defy all common sense.

To review: the latest satellite debris photos and the final “ping” data received from the 777 by the monitoring satellite indicate that the plane went down in the southern Indian Ocean, between Australia and Antarctica. And yet, the last military radar info indicted that the plane was flying on a north-west heading, after crossing the Malaysia peninsula on a due-west diversion from its normal south to north path to Beijing. This doesn’t look like a terrorist plot, since no credible group is taking credit. Even if it was a bungled attempt, say to crash the plane into an Indian city, most terror groups would still take “second prize” credit for bringing down a big commercial airliner. It would still be a “trophy” and an act of heroism in the sick world of terrorism. But blank silence on that account.

And yet, blank silence from the 777 flight too, even though the plane was well within aviation radio range when it went thru all the course deviations. If there were smoke from a fire (say from the lithium batteries in the cargo bay), or a hi-jacking going on, you would have expected » continue reading …

◊ posted by Jim G @ 8:35 pm Read Comment (1) / Leave a Comment

Thursday, March 13, 2014

◊ Obamacare In a Tailspin?

Current Affairs ... Politics ... Public Policy ...

Megan McArdle, an economic policy writer for Bloomberg, has published a series of articles over the past few months expressing doubt about the long-term viability of Obamacare. Ms. McArdle acknowledges that the Affordable Care Act of 2009 has had some positive effects. However, she has her doubts as to whether the government-private hybrid system that the ACA maps out can attain its lofty goal of providing affordable health care to the vast majority of American households, given the many complex problems that it has encountered and the many compromises that have been made by the Administration in the roll-out. Oh, and also the hostile political environment that the GOP and the general public have created for the ACA. It ain’t easy to radically re-design and re-arrange 16% of the American economy (and a terribly complex segment of that economy, one involving life-and-death issues affecting nearly everyone) within 5 years, especially when about 55% of the adult population is against it.

Up to now, I haven’t taken Ms. McArdle all that seriously. A lot of other writers, such as the redoubtably liberal Paul Krugman, are arguing that teething pains are to be expected and that a lot of major government initiatives (including the 2006 Romney health care reforms in Massachusetts) seemed very messy at first but eventually kicked-in and accomplished their major goals. But Ms. McArdle’s review of a recent poll released by the McKinsey consulting company is causing me to have my own doubts. In a nutshell, only 10% of uninsured adults using the new insurance exchanges (mostly thru the troubled federal web site and the various individual state care sites) have bought it by end of Feb, 2014. Most of the purchases that have been made through the exchanges are by those who already had insurance. The biggest issue appears to be high costs, even net of the subsidy that the ACA provides to lower-income households.

Another recent survey by Gallup gives a more optimistic view. An NPR article notes that this survey shows that the uninsured rate has fallen significantly in the » continue reading …

◊ posted by Jim G @ 2:48 pm Read Comments (4) / Leave a Comment

Sunday, March 9, 2014

◊ Time for a Cold War 2?

Current Affairs ... Foreign Relations/World Affairs ... History ...

Ah, the poor Ukraine. Three of my grandparents hailed from Poland, growing up not far from the Ukraine border. The fourth was from Belarus, just to the north. They all came to America about 100 years ago. It’s nice to see that Poland has escaped domination and gotten itself on its feet as a modernizing Western nation. Belarus is still a mess, but it’s a mostly stable mess, having accepted second-rate status as a Russian satellite nation. But the Ukraine – – it just can’t seem to make up its mind whether it wants to be another Poland or another Belarus. And the Russians have made it eminently clear that they will make it as difficult as possible for the Ukrainians to escape their dominance and work more closely with the European community. Several years ago I wrote a post noting the Orange Revolution in Kiev. The same issues were in play back then, and 5 years later, they are still way up in the air. This one is not going to get resolved anytime soon.

The big question for the USA is just how to approach this situation. Should we channel our inner Winston Churchill (as the British themselves are no longer able to; Great Britain is now just another Euro nation, not the declining but still world-dominating force that it was in the late 1930’s . . . the USA of today has inherited this role, including the downward trend) and get tough with Putin? Well, unlike the days of Churchill and the rise of Hitler, the Russians still have enough nuclear weapons remaining to basically put an end to our civilization. So we need to approach this with much caution.

Another part of this big question is, just how dangerous is Putin and modern Russia? Is Putin another Hitler? Does he have plans for the world, plans that we and a lot of others may not like? And even if he does, can he do as much damage » continue reading …

◊ posted by Jim G @ 3:13 am Read Comments (2) / Leave a Comment

Saturday, November 30, 2013

◊ My New Old-School Eye Doctor

Current Affairs ... Health / Nutrition ...

I recently changed my eye doctor, despite officially being a “suspect” for a nasty little eye disease that eventually leads to blindness. I was going to the same doctor at a big multi-function eye clinic for over 15 years. I can’t say that he ever did anything that was technically wrong; I just got tired of his attitude that “I’m the miracle man and you are the poor victim, I’m always right and anything you believe outside of what I tell you is wrong; and hey, I’ve already been here too long and have to get on to the next patient, so if there are no further [futile and stupid] questions on your part, then have a great day”.

This fellow has been cited in various local magazines (including New Jersey Monthly — look under ophthalmology) as a “doctor of the year”, for many years running. At first this seemed impressive; but it finally dawned on me that these “super doctor” magazine nominations aren’t exactly made by the Nobel Prize committee. This is more of an old-boy network judgement than an assessment based on ultimate benefit to the patient.

I finally decided to change to the eye doctor that my mother used when she was alive. He is a few years older than my former “doctor of the year for every year”; actually, » continue reading …

◊ posted by Jim G @ 4:12 pm Read Comment (1) / Leave a Comment

Thursday, November 7, 2013

◊ Big Data Blues

Current Affairs ... Technology ...

I’m seeing a lot written these days about “Big Data”. I’m not fully versed with it yet, but the concept seems to be grounded in the fact that many people today (especially younger people) put a whole lot of info about themselves on the Internet via social network sites, and through buying stuff on-line, banking on-line, and doing business with government agencies. And there are even more data sources, especially the smartphone: it monitors your calls, figures out your location with GPS locators, and otherwise snitches on what you are doing to some central command, like it or not. Furthermore, businesses (and even government agencies, albeit slowly) do more and more of their business via on-line mechanisms, exposing themselves to data collection.

All of this has not gone unnoticed by the big communications companies and web site corporations (Google, Facebook, Twitter, etc.); they are compiling huge databases with extremely detailed info about the day to day doings of individuals and corporate entities. And it’s not like all of these databases with all kinds of private information about almost everyone get used only by the compiling company or agency; they put this info out there for sale, so that the info gets amalgamated into mega-databases.

Obviously, a lot of people get upset about erosion of privacy due to these big databases. But a lot of young people don’t seem » continue reading …

◊ posted by Jim G @ 8:38 pm Read Comment (1) / Leave a Comment

Thursday, September 5, 2013

◊ The Real Climate Change Problem

Current Affairs ... Food / Drink ... Science ...

As of this writing, the Atlantic Hurricane season is about half over . . . and there hasn’t been a hurricane yet! This is a bit surprising, given the frequency and intensity of Atlantic and Caribbean tropical storms over the past 10 years. In the over $10 billion of damage range (adjusted to 2010 dollars), since early 2004, we have had Katrina ($105.8 billion 2005), Ike ($27.8 billion 2008), Wilma ($20.6 billion 2005), Ivan ($19.8 billion 2005), Charley ($15.8 billion 2004), Irene ($15.8 billion 2011), Rita ($11.8 billion 2005), and Frances ($10.02 billion 2004). Oh, and let’s not forget the memorable almost-hurricane that knocked New York City and New Jersey for a loop last year: Sandy, weighing in at about $64 billion in overall damages (adjusting back to 2010 dollars for comparability). There were only four other 10 billion + storms between 1965 and 2003 (admittedly, there was less coastal residential development back then; but there was also more industrial factory and port infrastructure along the East Coast and Gulf before 2003, so 9 mega-damage storms in 10 years still says something against 4 others in the previous 39 years).

Is this an early sign of global warming? The jury still seems to be out on this. Even the 10+ billion list above indicates that two-thirds of the recent mega-storms were concentrated in two seasons, 2004 and 2005; indicating that this hurricane outburst may have been something of a “freak of nature”. If progressive global warming were the main driver of increasing hurricane intensity, you might have expected more storms in the second 5 years (2009-2013) than the first; but the results are skewed heavily towards the first 5 years (7 versus 2).

But there is something else happening in the weather that doesn’t make the headlines like major hurricanes, but is more likely to be resulting from “anthropogenic climate change”. And that is » continue reading …

◊ posted by Jim G @ 3:33 pm Read Comment (1) / Leave a Comment

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