When I see little kids today, I wonder what the heck are they in for over the next 60 or 70 years. (Yea, I know, I’m an incurable wonk; most people notice the cuteness in kids before they worry about the future. I make Al Gore look like Mother Goose). Members of my generation (the wonderful Baby Boomers) were pretty lucky. Once the Vietnam thing finally died out, things were pretty good for us. Yea, there were some oil shortages, and now we have terrorism here on our shores to worry about. But still, we’ve had it pretty good. But between now and 2099, a whole lot of fecal matter is going to hit the fan.
First off, the terrorism problem may not just fade away anytime soon. Second, a whole lot more nations in the world are going to get nuclear weapons, and eventually terrorists are going to get them too. Third, world oil and gas production are going to peak at some point in the next 50 years, driving prices thru the roof (what we’re now seeing in terms of energy price run-ups is probably part of that trend, although we may yet see some temporary downswings). Next, there’s global warming. Al Gore’s move (An Inconvenient Truth) will soon be playing at a theater near you, and hopefully a lot more people will soon be worrying about a 5 to 10 degree increase in average temperature. But if all that wasn’t enough, how about world population growth? We’re marching steadily toward the 10 billion mark.
The conservative crowd responds to all this by advising us to stay cool. The stock conservative answer to all problems, i.e. unfettered market capitalism and the technological advances that it inspires, will ride to the rescue once more. There’s money to be made in finding new sources of energy, securing our shores, and cleaning the carbon out of our air. So just keep the government out of the way of big business, let the military do it’s thing, and everything will turn out just fine.
But hey, this time we’re betting the farm. Business usually makes its plans according to the time horizons of its capital sources. Bonds usually have 20 year terms (or less). Stock market investors theoretically have an infinite ownership horizon, but in reality most stock investors get in and get out in a few years. No one today buys stock for the sake of passing it on to their grandchildren. Profession investors managing retirement funds and mutual funds are always buying and selling, changing their portfolios in response to what they see as emerging opportunities and threats (mostly though just generating fees for themselves). Thus, business managers have no profit incentive to worry today about the way that the world will be in 50 years. Even if consumers express concern about problems such as global warming and fossil fuel depletion, businesses will run nice ads about how concerned they are (for example, those ads by Chevron and BP about their investments into alternate energy sources), and then get back to their short-run profit concerns.
Europe still thinks that government should start doing something about most of these problems (but not all), but the US has the rest of the world convinced that government should just stay out of it (except for terrorism). So China and India and Russia go their merry way, burning irreplaceable fossil fuels and polluting the air and looking the other way as nukes make their way to every corner of the globe, while famine and poverty get worse in Africa and the Middle East (and South America ain’t doing so good, either).
Actually, I think that each of the major world problems that I’ve identified could be dealt with, if the human race were a highly intelligent and cooperative lot. But we’ve still got that “me first, I got mine” instinct deep within our genes. And that causes war (including terrorism, another form of war). And war makes things fall apart. I believe that the worst threat for the 21st century is war. Technology may continue to expand our resources, but global warming, population growth and other factors will change where those resources are, how they are used, and who gets to use them. There are going to be a lot of winners and losers, and the game is going to be played very fast. Will everyone just stay calm, play fair, and wait for their cut? Will everyone trust that the winners will share some with the losers? Or will a fight break out?
Hugo Chavez, Osama Bin Laden, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Kim Il Jong and the leadership of Hamas don’t seem content to sit peacefully as the pot stirs. As things in the world change faster and faster in the upcoming decades, there may well be more like them. I hope that those little kids I see in the soccer fields and school busses will be able to figure out how to make the world that we give them work. The world today is indeed like a big stew pot that we’ve filled up and lit a very hot fire under. For a long time, the pot of stew just sits there calmly, despite all the flames. But at some point, it’s going to start boiling. My generation will be checking out just as things get bubbling. It will be up to those kids and their peers in Moscow, Cairo, Bombay, Buenos Aires, Seoul, etc. to try to keep the froth from sloping over the side and putting out the fire.