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Being a nobody political junkie, I’ve been following the presidential polls and campaigns, and as we get down to the last few days I’ve been totally devoting my attention to this. After the Oct 8 release by the Washington Post of the Access Hollywood Trump conversation with Billy Bush regarding Trump’s ongoing sexual exploitation of women, Ms. Clinton’s lead in the polls rapidly climbed, reaching a peak of 7 points over Trump on Oct. 19 according to Real Clear Politics. The equally prestigious FiveThirtyEight web site poll averages gave Clinton a 6.6% advantage on October 20. After that, however, the race started to tighten (even before the infamous October 29 letter to Congress from FBI Director James Comey about continuing investigations of e-mails related to Ms. Clinton’s use of a personal server for all of her State Department business while Secretary of State). This tightening trend indicates that support levels for Ms. Clinton have leveled off, while Trump has picked up uncommitted and third-party voters to increase his voting base (as support for the most significant 3rd party candidate, Gary Johnson of the Liberation Party, slips away). As of tonight, Clinton still maintains a 2.0% lead at Real Clear Politics, and a 2.9% advantage on Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight site. (The Huffington Post poll analysis blithely reports a 5.5% lead for Clinton, although that’s down a bit from 7.5% on October 9 . . . talk about seeing what you want to see!).
[SIDENOTE: I find it a bit ironic that Clinton thought that her attacking a man for his sexual crudities could end his Presidential prospects . . . I mean, her husband Bill lowered the bar with his shenanigans before and while President, and Ms Clinton then helped to defend him and keep him from being disqualified from national leadership. And now Ms. Clinton has to live the consequences.]
Unfortunately, some of the recent polls from Ms. Clinton’s Electoral College “firewall” states have also shown movement towards Trump also, especially in Ohio, Florida, Iowa and Nevada. The latest polls in the critical states of North Carolina and Colorado seem all over the place, but two recent polls from New Hampshire are a bit disheartening for Clinton supporters, showing Trump with a small lead (up to this point, New Hampshire seemed fairly secure for Clinton). Michigan and Wisconsin polls still mostly favor Clinton, but some Trump outliers are now being seen. And the early voting reports hinting that African American turnout may significantly decline from 2008 and 2012 levels weaken Clinton’s prospects in those two states, especially Michigan. Just two weeks ago, the betting odds and the odds shown on the FiveThirtyEight site gave Clinton an 80+ percent chance of winning. As of tonight, that’s back to about 66%. Not too much better than 50-50. Is this Trump’s last hurrah, or are a lot of angry or otherwise unsatisfied American voters really going to pull the lever or push the button for Trump?
I’ve always had faith in the American electorate. It seemed to me that the great majority of people who take the time and trouble to vote do it very responsibly. They diligently think through the choice and » continue reading …