The ramblings of an Eternal Student of Life     
. . . still studying and learning how to be grateful and make the best of it
 
 
Wednesday, March 26, 2008
Politics ...

I never really liked David Brooks, conservative columnist for the NY Times. He’s written books disparaging “bobos” (bourgeois bohemians), yet he seems like a bobo himself. (I believe that he has admitted this; takes one to know one). The whole bobo concept seems like a lame version of “yuppie” from the 1980s (especially lame since the yuppies, i.e Young Urban Professionals, aren’t young anymore). Brooks himself seems like a lame version of the late, almost great William F. Buckley. “Brooksie” doesn’t seem to have much going for him; in my book, he’s only good for selective tributes to virtue, anti-collectivism, restraint from interference with personal choice, and for other selective conservative bosh.

But lately, Brooks has written a lot about Barack Obama and has actually said a lot of insightful, almost admiring things about Obama. Despite their great disagreement about the role of government in society, Brooks seems to relate to Obama’s call for national unity transcending political interests. Strange bedfellows, for sure. (But here’s another conservative who admires Obama — again, quite strange).

Anyway, Brooks just wrote a column about Hilary Clinton’s declining chances to take the Democratic nomination, and the great damage that her refusal to surrender will cause if she goes all the way to the convention in late August. I have to admit, bobo-Brooksie convinced me that it really is time for Hilary to do the noble thing and give up. The longer she fights, the greater the chances are that McCain will be the next president (which Brooks would still prefer). Given the self-inflicted wounds caused by Obama’s response to the Wright videos, and all the other non-patriotic stuff that Obama and his wife have put out there for the Republican attack machine, every week that Hilary continues to struggle brings Obama closer to the point of no return.

Could Hilary make a stronger run against McCain? Very likely. Can she thus convince the superdelegates to overturn the wave of popular support that Obama has gained within the Democratic Party? Very unlikely. The only real options now for Hilary are to scorch the earth and watch Obama lose in November (the so-called “Tonya Harding option”; perhaps she hopes to run in 2012, when she will be 65 and McCain will be 77), or to do the right thing and get out of the way (not exactly what the Clintons are famous for, but never too late to start!). She can choose “told you so”, or she can direct her attack-dog instincts against McCain, so as to give Obama enough cover to seize the economic issue. That’s the high-ground that the Dems need to reclaim if they are to avoid snatching defeat from the jaws of seemingly inevitable victory this fall.

Barack Obama’s chances of becoming President are entirely in the hands of Hilary Clinton right now. It would be quite touching if she were to somehow decide to swallow her raging Clintonian ambition and allow Obama have his day. David Brooks himself would no doubt be impressed (even though he will still vote McCain). Stay tuned!

◊   posted by Jim G @ 9:13 pm       Read Comments (2) / Leave a Comment
 
 
Saturday, March 22, 2008
Photo ...

I brought my camera to work the other day and took some shots of the premises . . . . just to make the point that the place is ugly. Definitely negative feng shui. Perhaps architects and decorators are correct in saying that ugly places make for ugly people. There are some half-way decent people there, but there aren’t any saints. I’ve been there six years now and unfortunately it’s rubbing off on me. My shot at sainthood is toast by now. And I blame it on the environment, bureaucrat that I (now) am!

But seriously, all of the views below were taken from public areas, places that me and a lot of other paper pushers pass through on our daily rounds. I didn’t go looking for a dungeon that even the maintenance guys stay away from. Yes, there are some areas that aren’t as bad. But there’s nothing that you would call light, airy and pleasing (except maybe the big boss’ office). It’s just middle government at its most depressing, the kind of place that fits well into Dostoyevsky.

◊   posted by Jim G @ 4:33 pm       No Comments Yet / Leave a Comment
 
 
Thursday, March 20, 2008
Politics ...

By now, just about everyone in the nation has said something about the Rev. Jeremiah Wright videos and about Barack Obama’s Philadelphia speech on Tuesday. The country now seems tired and ready to move on from it; that’s just when I’m ready to jump in. Too bad for me that just about everything that could be said on this already has been. Nonetheless, with my usual sense of exquisite timing, here are my thoughts on the subject.

First off, the Obama campaign was expressly NOT supposed to be about race. Senator Obama basically told us that the fact that he has African blood in him should not matter. But now, thanks to his closeness to Rev. Wright, it does. After the Wright videos surfaced last week, Obama was in effect asked to choose between being a black man and being a generic, trans-racial member of the human race, as previously advertised. He chose to be black. And I take my hat off to him for doing so. He is a member of Chicago’s Trinity United Church, a church community that expressly defines itself as “unashamedly black”. When called upon to break his ties to that community, the Senator refused. So, Barack Obama is now the unashamedly black candidate.

Again, I admire his courage in choosing his community bonds over political expediency. Senator Obama is an extremely bright man who knows darn well that his shot at the White House, if not the Democratic nomination, has been endangered by his choice not to condemn the Rev. Wright. I don’t have to tell you that the GOP 527 committees are going to have a field day with those videos in the fall (along with Obama’s express refusal to wear an American flag pin, the video of him not placing his hand over his heart during the National Anthem, and his wife’s words about being proud of America for the first time in her adult life).

Now, as to the speech. Obama is a bright man who knows that his candidacy has been endangered, and the speech represented a necessary damage control effort. That’s not to detract from its brilliance and bravery. Obama decided to “grasp the nettle” of underlying racial tension that America has not yet resolved (but at least has the good sense to keep from boiling over in public). He told us that he knows what many blacks say and think about whites in private, and likewise knows what a lot of whites say and think about blacks in private. He promised to keep working toward greater understanding between such blacks and whites.

He told us that he didn’t share Rev. Wright’s more fiery views; in fact he condemned them, at least from his perspective as a national celebrity. However, he asked us to accept that he hasn’t previously challenged or personally censured such expressions while in the company of his black community, and he won’t now. He’s asking the nation to acknowledge that this sort of thing is all right within the African American community. He didn’t opine whether the nation as a whole should extend similar toleration to comparable situations within the Euro-white community, the Hispanic community, the Arab/Islamic-American community, etc.

(Indeed, imagine an Egyptian-American imam lecturing at an American mosque in front of many children, “Allah, Curse America!”, “America got what it deserved on 9/11” . . . . do we hope that the participants would tell the imam that they don’t want such values conveyed to their children and that they will withdraw their financial and personal support if such messages continue?)

OK, to me that’s the BIG ONE; that’s the question of the day. Is Obama correct in asking the nation to accept the black community’s toleration, if not complete embracement, of factually wrong and patriotically negative expressions by some of its prominent members? (Black church ministers are about as prominent as you can get in many African American communities.) And that its children should be exposed to such expressions? (Admittedly, there is a countervailing message from adults that no one intends to follow up on those messages by reviving the armed ‘black nationalist’ movements of the late 1960s, e.g. the Black Panthers.)

Senator Obama didn’t have the time on Tuesday to lay out the complicated and often unspoken historical and sociological parameters that underlie the state of racial relations in America today. And neither do I — not to mention that I really don’t know them very well. But I will admit that there are valid reasons for America to extend some understanding to people like the Rev. Wright (and to their relationships to those like Senator Obama).

Jeremiah Wright is not Osama Bin Laden. He has done much to serve the needy, to provide education, and to lift up and support those within his community. He has maintained the flow of daily life within his neighborhood. As with most black ministers, he has unceasingly urged and challenged his Chicago flock to strive and achieve, to educate and improve themselves, to be good faithful husbands and wives and parents, to believe in morality, to shun negative influences such as substance abuse, gambling, prostitution, etc.

And from the broader perspective, whites today cannot expect that the legacy of 300 years of slavery and apartheid on American soil could just vanish within a half century, despite the administration of correctives such as federal civil rights laws, poverty assistance programs, extended educational opportunities, and affirmative action within higher education and the workplace. Most white families today are able to say that their ancestors were not in America when slavery and the reconstruction were taking place. But their ancestors (including my own) did choose come to this country to share in its prosperity, and a significant portion of that prosperity was gained because of the forced labor and other injustices imposed upon west Africans brought to this land in the 17th, 18th and 19th centuries. Slavery did give America a significant economic kick-start, although science and the industrial revolution later took over. So there is an argument that America still owes something to its children of Africa, especially those who have not yet shared in the dream.

But on the other side of the coin, I think that whites, if allowed to speak frankly, would have some legitimate points to raise. One of those questions would be this: how long? Do African-Americans expect to be treated specially forever? Do they really want that? Doesn’t challenge often bring out the best in people, and can’t too much entitlement bring out the worst? The conservatives have some valid points about human nature such as it is.

I myself don’t believe that gangs, drugs, crime and other maladies of the black poor stem from the Great Society programs of the 1960s and 1970s; what did stem from them is the now-expanding black middle class. But at some point, white guilt can be and has been unfairly exploited. Does black culture in America really want to bill itself and be viewed as a damaged group that needs to always be given a head start in every event (other than basketball and hip-hop)? I know a fair number of successful black people who probably don’t think so. And although there certainly are valid arguments regarding redress for the sins of the past, at some point nearly every human being alive today has ties with some social or ethnic group that at some point in history was persecuted or plundered. Can the world heal all of the generational effects from every wound from the past?

Somewhere between these two polar viewpoints lies the truth, along a road of reason. Barack Obama (with help from Rev. Wright) brought American race relations back into the spotlight, but basically left the issues hanging and unresolved. He has to get on with his campaign; political realities won’t let him dwell on the subject. If anything, they encourage him to get away from the topic. Politically, he needs to go back to being “Barack Obama, man of all creeds and colors”, and get away from being “Barack Obama, American black man”, as he was and is when at Trinity United.

For better and for worse, though, I’m not sure that the voters this fall will let him do that.

◊   posted by Jim G @ 9:15 pm       Read Comments (5) / Leave a Comment
 
 
Monday, March 17, 2008
Economics/Business ... Society ...

Are you finding it hard to understand what’s going on with our economy right now? I am. Some things are certain — a lot of people who bought houses won’t be able to keep them; the stock market is down; gasoline and food prices are shooting up; a big financial firm just went out of business; the US dollar doesn’t buy much overseas right now; and a lot of people will get some free pocket change from the government shortly. That much we know.

But what’s coming over the horizon? Many economists and business people are worried. They hope it won’t be much worse than a year of slow business and a few hundred thousand extra people temporarily out of work. They hope nothing fundamental is changing and no real damage was done to the system. They hope that by next year the stock market will be up, the dollar will be up, employment will be up, gas prices will be down, and we’ll all be happy with our new President.

But what if there is real damage to the underlying structures on which the economy depends? One essential element in the mechanics of a successful economy is trust. Without trust, people stop trading and transacting, everyone gets defensive, and in the end a lot of people become poorer for it (usually those who already weren’t doing so great). For better or for worse, borrowed money is the grease that makes an economy run. Borrowed money stays “greasy” (in the economic sense) so long as everyone trusts that a loan will be repaid more or less on schedule. When that trust starts to fade, the grease starts to dry up and the economic machinery starts to grind and slow down.

For instance, student loans depend upon a complex financial system which is being thrown out of kilter by the crisis. It’s possible that fewer loans will be made to perspective students over the coming year, meaning that fewer kids will get to college, which immediately starts impacting the colleges and the textbook publishers. And those kids who were forced to delay or avoid college will earn less over their working lives, meaning that the government will get less tax revenue, Wal Mart will sell fewer home entertainment systems, etc. This is all just for one type of loan. Think about the effect of car loans, construction loans, credit card debt, working capital loans, etc. So, the lack of available loans has significant and long-term impact on economic activity.

You’d think that the people who invest and borrow millions of dollars each day would be careful (i.e, “trustworthy”) about what they’re doing. Obviously they weren’t. One of the bottom lines (or near-bottom lines) is that too much debt has been issued in the last couple of years, and that not all of it is going to be paid back. So just who is going to get stuck with the bill? And just how much is the economy going to suffer because of it?

The economy obviously has to slow down — all that delusional lending sped it up too much. However, economic things always tend to go too far one way and then too far the other. What will be the side effects? Someone is going to have to become poorer. But who? In a better world, we could all just agree to share the bill according to our ability, learn a lesson and get on with revitalizing things. But this is America, and thus there’s going to be a lot of political wrangling about it. The rich don’t want to become less rich, and they have the resources to fight the hardest. And it all just makes things worse.

I have a dog in this fight. I’m trying to save and invest so as to retire by age 66. My retirement plan isn’t luxurious; hopefully I’ll have the equivalent of $30K a year to spend after taxes (but before health costs). I could get by comfortably in a small-town apartment for 15 years or so, as long as I don’t plan on taking annual cruises and trips to Europe. But if the economy goes haywire for a decade, then my plan is toast. And so are a lot of other peoples’. But ain’t that America, as John Mellencamp says . . . . the America in which we’ve put our trust. My grandparents and parents put their trust in our country, and they did fairly well by it. But since then, someone turned our nation into a casino and a mud wrestling pit!

◊   posted by Jim G @ 8:32 pm       Read Comments (3) / Leave a Comment
 
 
Thursday, March 13, 2008
Economics/Business ...

When you see articles saying that we’re not really going into a recession, it’s a sure sign that we’re already in a recession. Economic denial runs deep amongst the economists and the investing class, as does the desire to get one’s words into print by being a fashionable “contrarian”. I’ve lived through a number of recessions, and you always see such articles just as the recession is getting under way. Here are three recent examples from some wanna-be contrarians:

Recession? Not Yet

Shrinking Payrolls Mean Sluggish Growth, Not Recession

UCLA Experts Don’t Buy Recession

So, welcome to the Recession of 2008.

◊   posted by Jim G @ 7:44 pm       Read Comments (4) / Leave a Comment
 
 
Monday, March 10, 2008
Current Affairs ... Economics/Business ...

I got a little shock the other morning when I went into the bagel store for a half-dozen cinnamon-raisins. Until about 6 months ago, the price was 50 cents per bagel. It had been fifty cents for about two or three years. But then it went up to sixty cents; well, no big deal. And then, last month, it was seventy cents. So I figured six bagels times seventy, $4.20. But no, the lady at the counter told me $5.40. In other words, ninety cents a bagel. GEEZ, what the hell is going on? Is the world coming to an end?

There was an article in the NY Times today that explains what happened. The price of wheat has skyrocketed lately, just like oil. Flour prices have gone way up. So the bagel shop owner had to raise his or her prices to stay in business. I can understand that. I only eat two bagels per week, so it’s only another two dollars a month out of my pocket. But what just happened with bagels is happening for a lot of other important things today, like gasoline and food. I haven’t seen economic stuff like this since the 1970s, i.e. prices going up every time you blink. Our economy is definitely entering troubled waters once again.

The Times article makes an important point, however. We here in the USA are hurting in the wallet and pocketbook because of all the recent price inflation. Our standards of living are going down somewhat. BUT, the effects of all this on the developing world, especially Africa, are of an entirely different magnitude. The average American may have to defer his or her next purchase of a high-def TV or a new cell phone; the average Nigerian or Congolian may have to cut back on his or her daily caloric intake. People who are now productive may not remain so after a few months of low-level starvation. As such, poverty in Africa might only get worse.

One of the big problems is that a lot of people in the world want to live like Americans, and are now imitating us by eating a lot more meat. Perhaps not in western Africa, but in other nations that have done somewhat better, e.g. Mexico and Indonesia, meat consumption is on the rise. And growing cattle and pigs and chickens uses a lot of grain; it’s a much less efficient way of getting calories to human beings, as compared to just consuming the grain (even if you first have to boil or bake or mill it). So, the demand for grain has climbed greatly, and since farmers can only increase production gradually, prices have skyrocketed. Although grain production can go up, there is only so much arable land; some economists think that food costs are going up on a permanent basis.

Of course, this could all change if the demand for meat starts to fall. Since the price of meat is very sensitive to the cost of the grain required to fatten up all those cows and pigs and birds for slaughter, consumers will soon be in for some sticker shock at the meat counter. At some point, meat eaters may re-think their diets. However, it will probably take a while; gasoline prices have been going up for three years now, but only now is the American public starting to think twice about those big guzzler SUVs that were so popular.

There are some people, however, who have already taken the plunge for food / energy efficiency and thus for a better-fed world. They are called vegetarians. And I’m glad to be one of them. If you have thought about becoming one, there couldn’t be a better time. And if you are already one, there couldn’t be a better reason for resisting the social pressures that all veggies face to “be like everyone else” and chomp down a burger. Sticking with our salads and tofu is just a drop in the bucket; it won’t allow any particular Somalian to properly feed his children (nor allow me to buy cinnamon-raisin bagels at a reasonable price again). But someone has to take on the role of the prophet; someone has to light the path when it’s still unpopular. So keep the lentils and rice coming, all you veg heads, and be proud of what you’re eating!

◊   posted by Jim G @ 7:12 pm       Read Comments (2) / Leave a Comment
 
 
Friday, March 7, 2008
Politics ...

Being an aging “Baby Boomer”, I’ve found it rather hard to understand the appeal of Barack Obama. But David Brooks of the NY Times did a nice job today in explaining it to those of us on the wrong side of the half-century mark.

OK, thanks Brooksie. Now I understand better. Barack is an idealist at heart, not a politician.

Obama has been trying to sell a dream to our country. As dreams go, it’s relatively modest and seemingly doable (“yes we can” being the campaign motto). It envisions an America no longer split off into waring interest groups, an America where everyone starts thinking more about the good of the whole and less about grabbing their chunk of the pie regardless of what happens to everyone else. Barack Obama is trying to sell the vision of “a different kind of politics”, a politics built around respectful negotiation of honest differences, a politics of seeking “win-win” solutions, a politics of communication, long-term thinking, and fairness. He envisions a political process where using the lowest, vilest tactics to get what you want, no matter what the consequences are for the future, is no longer the norm.

Barack obviously agrees with what I have previously written in this blog, i.e. that America is getting more and more like the Roman Empire during its last hundred years of existence, in terms of domestic infighting. Opposing Roman factions would settle their differences by raising legions and sacking the major cities; we do it less violently, but just as viciously with lobbyists and spin consultants and advertising blitzs and campaign contributions to politicians. The results are the same: the spoils go to the victor, but the nation goes down the tubes as the barbarians prepare to crash the gates.

I’ve also talked here about our culture’s regrettable over-emphasis of competition and its wanton disregard of cooperation. Barack Obama has been preaching to the nation about a change of heart, about embracing cooperation in our political, economic and social lives. And that struck a chord in a lot of people, especially young people. For various reasons (including the fact that I’m not a young person anymore), I couldn’t pick up on this. I just kept seeing him as a politician; no politician could really mean what Senator Obama was saying. It was just a ploy to win, just another competitive tactic all the more pernicious for exploiting the concept of cooperation and fairness and increased collective-thinking (i.e., “for the good of the nation more than for the good of any one of us”.) But Brooksie thinks that Barack Obama was sincere, and I’m starting to agree.

Brooksie also points out that Obama is on the edge of being co-opted and corrupted by the politics that he sought to stay above. Senator Clinton, playing by the old rules, has renewed her threat to stop the Obama movement. To win, Obama is going to have to betray his ideals. The dream is over or will soon be over, although the ghost of it will march on for a while. No wonder Obama’s people think of Hilary Clinton as a “monster”; Samantha Power was just the one who got caught saying it.

I feel kind-of bad now that I understand Senator Obama a little bit better. Not that I’m going to go out and work for him or donate to his campaign. I feel that Obama was extremely naive to think that he could beat Hilary Clinton with idealism, and even more naive to think that it could also get him past the Grand Olde Party, those masters of the darker political arts. But I now think that there actually was something positive in what he and his many followers have been doing. He struck a chord by accessing the inherent goodness within all of us. Hopefully this world will someday present more and better opportunities for those virtues to bubble up and cohere within the collective sphere of international commerce, economics, politics and culture. For now, however, virtue and foresight will remain mainly a private thing. War, economic exploitation and short-sighted ways of living (i.e., America’s energy-hogging, global warming, have-versus-have not economy and the military mega-machine necessary to support it) will go on.

The whole Barack Obama thing brings back memories of another Senator who ran for President: George McGovern. I was a very enthusiastic McGovern supporter in 1972. I totally believed in him; he represented change and betterment to me. He would stop the war and bring peace and harmony and justice. Looking back on myself, I can only laugh. Had McGovern somehow been elected, his pacifist / populist / socialist approach would have been ground down over time; at best he wouldn’t have been much different from Lyndon B. Johnson (other than LBJ’s nasty mistake in getting us deep into Vietnam). But given McGovern’s relative lack of political and leadership skills, he might have been worse than Jimmy Carter in terms of getting things done. We might have avoided Watergate but come to national stalemate, to the benefit of the Soviet Union, OPEC, Japan, China, and everyone else playing hardball with the USA.

The best thing that Obama could do for the country right now would be to stick to his preachy style and his high moral standards. That would be political suicide; if Clinton didn’t get him before August, McCain surely would do so thereafter. However, his persistence and prophecy would make a lot of people think, late at night: does it really have to be this way?

I hope that Obama remains pure, but like Brooksie I strongly suspect that he won’t.

And as to George McGovern, who did in fact go down to crushing defeat in an idealistic fashion, I was a bit saddened to read an article that he wrote in today’s Wall Street Journal. He talks about how government regulations intended to protect disadvantaged people from economic exploitation often backfire and make things worse for them; his case-in-point regards various state regulations against high-interest “payday lending” by sleazy loan companies. “I’ve come to realize that protecting freedom of choice in our everyday lives is essential to maintaining a healthy civil society.”

(And don’t forget that McGovern endorsed Hilary Clinton early on! You’d think he would at least have started with John Edwards . . . )

What the former Senator says make much sense; but it’s just not the message that I wanted to hear from him. Instead of a pragmatic McGovern, I’d rather see him out there with Senator Obama, preaching a new day for Washington and for our world. Although they were both destined for political tragedy one way or another, their noble persistence might inspire future generations to take up the torch and seek something more than security, warmth, reproduction and ego-gratification during our all-too-short lives. C’mon, George, say it, for old time sake: YES WE CAN.

◊   posted by Jim G @ 9:12 pm       Read Comments (3) / Leave a Comment
 
 
Tuesday, March 4, 2008
Personal Reflections ... Photo ...

We’ve had a relatively easy winter here in New Jersey. There were a couple of snowy days and a couple of cold snaps, when it went down to 7 or 8 degrees. But we’ve had nothing like the Siberian conditions experienced out in the Midwest, with weeks of snow and sub zero temps.

But even a mild winter gets me down. There are still too many short gray days and long dark nights. I think that Seasonal Affective Disorder has been getting to me. But sometime during this past weekend, it struck me that it’s March. Then the sun came out and the air had changed: the smell of plant life growing had returned, if only faintly. There could still be an Arctic front and we could still get snow. But you know that the “S.A.D.-ness” will soon be coming to an end.

Back in December I posted a crude translation of a little poem about the start of winter, from some Russian lady’s blog site. She marveled about how winter could be “cozy” and “bright”. But the truth is that winter is more dimness and grunge, even when it’s relatively tame. Here’s a pick that I took a few weeks ago which captures the feel of winter. It also helps to explain why it feels so good when the gray finally starts going away.

◊   posted by Jim G @ 7:29 pm       Read Comments (2) / Leave a Comment
 
 
Thursday, February 28, 2008
Religion ...

It’s statistics time again. Today’s statistics are about religion, courtesy of a recently released study by the Pew Foundation (more properly, the The Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life). The Foundation recently commissioned a telephone survey of over 35,000 people living in America regarding religious preferences and backgrounds. The results are quite interesting for many reasons. But I would like to focus here on a small sub-set of the many statistics derived from this study, as a way to gauge the relative health and healthiness of the major religious choices available in the USA (evangelical Protestants, mainline Protestants, Catholics, Orthodox, Jewish, etc.). Admittedly, I’m not ready to provide a precise definition of “health” and “healthiness” with regard to religion. Perhaps the statistics themselves will help explain what I’m after.

The first thing that I’m going to compare is the percentage of people who are still active in the religious tradition in which they were brought up in youth. That should tell you something about whether the religion in question is realistically addressing the life needs of its members, given the realities of life in our country today. The second statistic that I’m interested in is the percentage of those people who have left the religion they grew up in and now practice no religion at all. This gives us some idea of how many people “got a bad flavor in their mouth” from their childhood experiences of religion, and were then turned off to all thoughts of collective worship.

The third statistic of interest is a bit of a “corrective” for the first one. It regard the percentage of people in a particular religion who are immigrants. I think it can be fairly said that immigrants often prefer to stay involved in their childhood religion, because it provides social stability for them as they get used to living in a foreign land. That was certainly the case for my grandparents and those like them who came over from Poland many years ago. Only decades later did their wise-guy grandchildren (including myself) start questioning the old time religion.

Well, let’s take a look at the numbers from Pew and see what they might mean:

CHILDHOOD
RELIGION

Percent
STILL INVOLVED
Percent
NO RELIGION
Percent
IMMIGRANT
Evangelical Protestants
71%
12%
7%
Mainline Protestants
60
14
5
Buddhist
50
28
26
Jehovahs Witness
37
33
17
Hindu
84
8
86
Jewish
76
14
10
Orthodox
73
7
38
Mormon
70
14
6
Roman Catholic
68
14
23
Unaffiliated (atheist, agnostic, nothing)
46
0
12
Atheist
40
?
?

I would think that the higher the “Still Involved” percentage is, the more healthy the religion is (if all else were the same, which it never is). The Hindus come in first here, at 84%. The Jehovah Witnesses are the worst at 37%. The next statistic, “No Religion” (meaning “left the childhood faith and not practicing any religion now”), goes the other way; the lower this number is, the more healthy the religion is, or would seem. The Hindus are almost the best in this, at 8% (only the Orthodox are slightly better at 7%). The Jehovah’s Witnesses are again the worst, at 33%. It appears to me that a lot of people get burned out by the Witnesses. It’s definitely a religion for special tastes, and not for children. As to the Hindus, they appear to be the most healthy, but we have to look to the third statistic to put their success into context. The Hindu religion is mainly practiced by immigrants; 86% of those surveyed who grew up in the Hindu religion were born abroad. So it’s not that surprising that the Hindus get such good stats; it’s a cultural thing. The average American thinking about converting to Hinduism would probably not experience the same satisfaction that current practitioners of Hinduism seem to enjoy.

The next interesting thing that grabs my attention is the difference between the Mainline Protestant groups (Methodist, Presbyterian, Episcopalian, Lutheran, Congregationalist) and the Evangelical Protestants (Baptists, Pentecostals, Holiness Churches, etc.). Both have very low percentages of immigrants; they are definitely American religions. But for whatever reason, the Evangelicals seem to be doing better than the more liberal Mainline churches. The Evangelicals held on to 71% of their childhood members in the survey, versus 60% for the Mainline churches. And a slightly lower percentage of childhood members of Evangelicals turned off to religion completely versus the Mainliners (12% versus 14%). I take my hat off to the social justice awareness of the Protestant Mainline churches, but it looks as though they are not doing enough to meet the personal needs of their members. It’s too bad there has to be a dichotomy in that regard; it’s too bad that religion can’t find a way to minister to both those who have suffered injustice, and to those who are living an average American life.

I developed two other stats regarding crossover between Mainline and Evangelical Protestants. In which direction is the traffic heavier? As you might guess, the traffic is heavier for Mainlines going over to the Evangelical side. About 15% of people surveyed who were born in the Mainline tradition went over to an Evangelical church, whereas only 9% of Evangelicals went over to a Mainline church. For better or for worse, the Evangelical Protestants have a better handle on what the average American family seems to expect from religion.

The Jews show a good retention rate of 76%, despite a relatively low immigrant rate of 10%. However, those who do leave Judaism often stay away from religion co
mpletely (14% of those who grew up Jewish became non-religious). The Mormons aren’t much different from the Jews here; they have a retention rate of 70%, an immigrant rate of 6%, and a “no religion anymore” rate of 14%. The two “catholic” style faiths, the Orthodox and the mainstream Roman Catholics, have interesting differences. The Orthodox seem “healthier” with a 73% retention rate and a 7% no-religion rate, versus 68% and 14% for Roman Catholicism. However, some of this difference is explained by immigrant status; about 38% of the Orthodox in the poll were born abroad, whereas 26% of Catholics were immigrants. So you would expect the Orthodox to do somewhat better, although perhaps not by that much. Recall, though, that the Orthodox church is small potatoes in the USA; there are almost 40 Roman Catholics for every Orthodox Catholic.

The Catholics still appear to be doing better than the Mainline Protestant churches. However, if you were to adjust for the higher percentage of immigrants amidst the Catholics, the Catholics wouldn’t seem that much better. The survey didn’t break out numbers for native-born Catholics, but based on the numbers for Hindus and Orthodox, you would expect the retention rate for native-born Catholics to be around 64 or 65%; i.e. not that much better than the Mainliners’ 60%.

As to Islam, unfortunately the Survey did not have good numbers, since the percentage of Muslims is relatively low. What few statistics the Survey does show regarding Islam suggest general stability and high rates of immigrant status, similar to the Hindus.

Interestingly, the Buddhists and the “Unaffiliateds” (atheists, agnostics and “nothing in particular”) don’t look very ‘healthy’ at all. Despite the attractiveness of Buddhism to many disenchanted Catholics and Mainline Protestants, those who are born Buddhist often don’t stay; their retention rate is a relatively low 50%. However, when people leave Buddhism, they often follow the spirit of the Buddha and stay away from religion completely. That percentage is 28%. The Buddhists in the survey were mostly native born, but 26% were immigrants, similar to the Catholics. So, despite cultural ties for the immigrant faction, born Buddhists still seem to be streaming for the doors.

The Unaffiliateds did even worse (these include atheists, agnostics, and “nothing in particular”, whether or not they believed in the supernatural). Only 46 percent of people who grew up in the “unaffiliated” status had stayed in it. The survey said that most of those who left became involved in some religion. The survey provided a statistic for the atheist component alone, showing that only 40% of people growing up in atheist households still considered themselves atheists! Unfortunately, there was not any follow-up on this group regarding what they had become – were they now regularly going to a church or a temple, or were they simply shifting over to “agnostic” or “unaffiliated believer” status? Unfortunately, Pew left us hanging here. Still, the atheist perspective is obviously a tough sell. Many people adopt it in adulthood, but it obviously doesn’t leave a good taste if you were brought up as a child in it.

So you see a lot of “do your own religion thing” here in America, especially for the native-born. Many people who were born into a religion eventually become “unaffiliated” with any religion, but those born “unaffiliated” often become religious. The Jews and Mormons seem to be religions where you usually are born into it and stay in it, even though they are both highly Americanized. The Hindus and Muslims may go that route too in the future. The Mainstream Protestants by contrast are an all-American Church in a nosedive; the native-born component of the Catholic religion isn’t doing that much better. They both seem to fulfill predictions that the secularization trend going on in western Europe will take hold in America; i.e. the Christian churches will become mostly for immigrants. However, the Evangelical Protestants seem to be bucking this trend; they may attain the “born into and hold onto” status of the Mormons and Jews, but on a much larger scale. They are obviously going to remain a political force. They may be tuning into something uniquely American in character and circumstance.

And finally, as to the no-religion or almost-no-religion (Buddhism) options: these factions may be growing in influence in Europe, but they don’t seem to be catching fire here in the USA. Before they can present a relevant alternative for the human family as a whole, they will need to do better with their own children. Otherwise, they won’t ever amount to much more than a refuge for burnt-out adults (like myself) who eventually slip thru a hole in the proverbial fisherman’s net of established religion.

◊   posted by Jim G @ 8:11 pm       Read Comments (2) / Leave a Comment
 
 
Sunday, February 24, 2008
Personal Reflections ... Photo ...

About two weeks ago, the UPS guy showed up at my apartment house and left eight boxes on the porch. I saw the boxes and out of curiosity, I looked at the shipping label to see who this stuff was for. To my surprise, it was for me! But I didn’t order it, it was a big mistake. I recognized the name of the sender, an internet purveyor of specialty food items; I had ordered from them before, but not for several months. So I went on line, and to my relief I didn’t see any unexpected charges against my credit cards. Then I shot an e-mail to the company telling them that it was all a big mistake, I didn’t order this stuff. They wrote back and asked me to open one box, get out the invoice, and give them the reference numbers. I sent that back to them, and asked them when I should expect the stuff to be picked up. Two days went by, no reply. So I wrote again, asking ‘when are you having this stuff picked up?’ Again, no response. So, I got out the invoice and decided that whatever this stuff was, it was now mine.

Actually, it was a lot of beans. Another customer had ordered big 25 pound bags of beans and grains from this company. I can’t figure out why; their prices per pound are almost twice what you pay in the supermarket (despite being bought in bulk). Well whatever, the stuff was now mine, por nada.

Actually, I gave three of the bean-bags and a sack of organic couscous to a homeless shelter that my brother used to volunteer with. That still left me with a good supply of lentils, black-eyed peas, wheat berries, split green peas, and white beans. I got them put away in my kitchen, but then I started thinking about the bags that the stuff came in. Most suburban people (like me) normally never see bagged foods in bulk. You see cans and plastic wrapped food in supermarkets, but unless you work in a warehouse or a food factory or an institutional kitchen, you never see 25 pound bags of beans. So here’s a picture of one of the bags. This is what it looks like, straight from the heartland of America (the bean company is in Nebraska). It definitely looks different. It didn’t come from coastal, urbanized America; it’s plain and understated, but colorful and creative in a certain way. Perhaps it’s something waiting to be discovered by the artistic crowd in Manhattan. Yes, I could see a special display at one of the big art museums, maybe the Whitney: “Straight from the Heartland: Bulk Bean Bags of America”.

◊   posted by Jim G @ 11:34 am       Read Comments (2) / Leave a Comment
 
 
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