The ramblings of an Eternal Student of Life     
. . . still studying and learning how to be grateful and make the best of it
 
 
Saturday, January 9, 2010
Politics ...

David Brooks had an interesting little article in the NY Times the other day about the “tea party movement” and what it means. Brooks thinks that it reflects a growing public exasperation with “the educated class”.

Brooks has a valid point, even though the whole “tea party” thing probably goes beyond this. In order to be exasperated with the educated class, you first have to BE educated (i.e., takes one to know one). Sara Palin, their heroine, is not exactly noted for her intellectual brilliance. Her upcoming speech before the Tea Party convention in Nashville should be a hoot.

But the tea party folk certainly are exasperated, and much of what they are exasperated about was put into place by very highly educated people, both in government and business (e.g., the collateralized debt obligations and government homeownership programs that made sub-prime mortgages so popular). There certainly is an anti-intellectualist wind blowing in American politics these days, perhaps part of the expected backlash against Barack Obama (and the ‘too-big-to-fail’ financial institutions, and the PhD experts who confuse people e.g. regarding mammogram necessity).

Aside from his good looks and his oratorical skills, Mr. Obama’s main calling card is his education and intellectual achievement. He’s the first president in a while who taught at a university (and not just any university; Harvard, of course). A lot of Americans voted for Mr. Obama on the rationale that he is more intellectual than both his predecessor and his 2008 opponent, and thus could better get us out of the various calamities (recession, unemployment, the real estate collapse, Iraq, Afghanistan, rising gasoline prices, the growing deficit) that happened on Mr. Bush’s watch. Most of those messes have not yet been resolved. But despite this, Mr. Obama decided to involve the nation in two more complex and contentious issues, i.e. health care reform and greenhouse gas controls (i.e., cap and trade). The nation thus seems to be in political overload right now.

I myself have no use for Palin and the tea party thing. Their reactionary response against intellectual leadership is quite pernicious. But I do have to wonder about Mr. Obama’s unspoken premise, i.e. that intelligent, well-educated people like him know best what to do for the masses, and will change things for the better if left alone. (Regarding education, Mr. Obama is unlike the 2/3 of the country who don’t have a college degree; or much higher if you limit Mr. Obama to the elite who graduated from America’s top schools. Ironically that would include G.W. Bush, although he didn’t act like it, which Mr. Obama and his team do).

Over the past 300 years or so, the notion has arisen in various places that power should be given over to “the best and the brightest”. Actually, you can trace this theory back to Plato in The Republic, i.e. his ideal of the “philosopher-king”. And of course the ancient Chinese created a class of educated bureaucrats in the tradition of Confucius; even in the Dark Ages, Charlemagne pushed the ideal of education onto his lackeys. But it was during the Enlightenment that the notion of the leadership of the intellectually elite really gained traction.

Just how well has this notion fared in the real world? Well, there was the French Revolution; that didn’t turn out so good. But then again, the leaders of the American Revolution also drank from the wells of Enlightenment thought. And they gave the world a practical blueprint for a better form of government, one that balanced the ancient ideals of democracy, constitution, human rights and freedoms, limited collective powers and ‘checks and balances’ – i.e., balances between elitism and mob democracy. Karl Marx took the Enlightenment ideal to its limit, saying that Utopia was just a matter of science, along with the strong will to force that science on an unruly world. This didn’t work out too well in practice. But in China, a hybrid, Confucian post-Marxism is having some success in raising the living standards of millions, perhaps billions of people (while continuing to deny them political rights, in the Marxist tradition).

In the USA, the public has occasionally given blank checks to its “best and brightest”, again with varying results. There was Woodrow Wilson back in the early years of the 20th Century; his Presidency didn’t fare so well. But FDR was quite the intellectual elitist, and yet the public was ultimately grateful for his leadership. Then came John F. Kennedy, but his experiment with “Camelot” ended too abruptly to judge whether he was ultimately successful (e.g., could he have avoided the tar pit that the Vietnam War became, given that he started us on the road down into that pit?). Jimmy Carter seemed like the intelligent alternative to Richard Nixon’s cynicism, but in the end he failed to inspire the nation to better things. And now we have Barack Obama quickly spending his blank checks from a near-landslide election. Is he using those “checks” wisely? The tea party folk obviously don’t think so.

I myself don’t have an Ivy League background, but I do highly value intelligence, rationality and study. However, as to whether those things can be the sine qua non for successful political leadership, things get murky. We certainly do want a basic level of brightness and education and general worldliness in our leaders. Sarah Palin exhibits the dangers of appointing a leader not having this. But book smarts are not enough. Our best and most successful leaders have blended a strong if not terribly sophisticated sense of historical right and wrong, together with a practical common sense about politics and public perception. They certainly weren’t angels, they certainly made moral compromises; but yet they did get good things done. I’m thinking here about Abraham Lincoln, Teddy Roosevelt, Harry Truman, maybe even Dwight Eisenhower (he started the Interstate Highways; too bad we don’t take care of them these days). I’ll even give the Gipper (Ronald Reagan) a tip of the hat, even though I disagreed with much of what he believed in. Reagan could have used more education and intelligence to balance off his righteous populism.

So we definitely do want more than intelligence and education in a leader. We certainly should look into a candidate’s character, into her or his moral quality and vision for the nation (expecting some stain and compromise; you can’t be a politician without some bloodshed). We also must consider his or her basic common sense, along with their appreciation for the perceptions and concerns of the public. Even if the public is not always right, even if a highly educated man like Barack Obama sees more than most others do, a leader ultimately has to keep the crowds happy in order to get anything done. The whole tea party thing indicates that Mr. Obama is having some trouble in this regard.

(I also wonder about Mr. Obama’s moral vision for the nation; I think he’s an honorable man, more so than Bill Clinton was. But he seems to apologize too much for America’s past. Apologies are certainly in order, but Mr. Obama fails to cite our flaws as a lapse from a still-living American ideal, a human ideal that certainly is better than most of what the rest of the world offers.)

◊   posted by Jim G @ 4:41 pm       Read Comments (2) / Leave a Comment
 
 
Sunday, January 3, 2010
Public Policy ...

In my quasi-intellectual meanderings on the global warming issue, I came across a 2009 article in the Journal of Health Science called “Population is a Critical Factor for Global Carbon Dioxide Increase”.

The title almost says it all. But the article is still worth reading, as it is short and full of graphs that are interesting and easy to understand.

The bottom line here is this: the more people there are on the face of the planet, the more carbon dioxide will be in the atmosphere (along with other less potent greenhouse-effect gases like methane). As to the next proposition, that the more CO2 there is, the higher the global temps will be; and the proposition after that, i.e. the higher the global temps, the more famine, war and other calamity the human race will experience in the next 100 to 200 years; well, those propositions I don’t completely agree with at this point. I think that they are interesting theories, and should be taken very seriously given the massive potential consequences. BUT, I don’t think that science has enough evidence at this point to sound the alarm.

Admittedly, the “institution of science” in general disagrees with me. In fact it is sounding the alarm. But scientists and their institutions are still human, and are still subject to pride, ego and herd mentality. Also, they know that they have a lot to gain economically from government and foundation grant funds if the public takes them seriously. Thus, I think they’re being a bit premature. The recent “Climategate” e-mail disclosures provide fairly good evidence that the “mainstream” climate scientists along with their academic and governmental employers are protesting a bit too vehemently against those renegade scientists who beg to differ with them. Sure, those renegades often prostitute themselves to political and economic forces, i.e. the big coal, oil, power and industrial enterprises that stand to lose big $$ as governments take action against carbon buildup in the air. But again, the “mainstream” isn’t so pure in that regard either. It’s hard to know who is right.

I’m not a scientist, but I do have some university training in physics, chemistry and math, and I maintain an interest in scientific issues into my old age. Thus I have taken a look “under the hood” of both the pro- and anti-warming presentations, and my impression is that it’s NOT clear that greenhouse gas build-ups in the atmosphere are going to cause or trigger future global disasters. This is still a possibility, and there is enough evidence to justify a “get ready just in case” position. There may in fact be future climate disasters that will NOT be caused by greenhouse gases; the world would still benefit from “get ready” planning efforts started today. But as to putting significant burdens on the world’s commercial-industrial networks such that economic growth slows down and millions or even billions of people who could have come out of poverty (as is now happening in India and China and Brazil) do not; well, I don’t think we have enough evidence to go that far at this point.

Back to the article and the graph that I adopted from the info used in the article; it seems pretty clear to me that the more people we have on this planet, the more CO2 will be in the air. If CO2 is pushing the world towards climate-induced disasters (which again I don’t fully agree with at this point), and if combustion of carbon-based fuels is inherent to human life itself, then the only real remedy would be to stop or significantly slow down population growth. Under this viewpoint, it almost looks like “Mother Nature” is saying “stop putting so many new members of your greedy species on my turf so quickly, or I will get rid of the excess myself”.

Of course, to adopt this viewpoint, you first need to buy into my second proposition, i.e. that combustion of carbon-based fuels is inherent to living. Can human beings live without combustion? For most of human history, the answer seemed to be NO. Even ancient humans needed to burn wood for light and heat at night (and also during the day, in regions away from the tropics), and also to cook food. Unless you lived on a tropical island where you ate coconuts and raw fish, you needed fire; that fire gave off a fair amount of CO2, and the effect was made worse because in chopping down a tree for firewood, you decreased nature’s CO2 absorption capacity.

As modern humans developed technology and moved to different kinds of carbon fuels (coal, oil, natural gas), we could provide for the basics (heat, light) in a more efficient fashion than ancient tribes could. BUT, we started finding other uses for combustion, mainly as ways to transport ourselves along with our commerce and trade. And then came electricity and refrigeration and air conditioning. As such, technology in the 18th, 19th and 20th centuries was a 2-edged sword regarding greenhouse gases; it burned cleaner, but found many new ways to usefully burn carbon fuel as to make life better for us.

Technology has developed new ways to generate energy that reduce or even eliminate the need for carbon fuels. These include nuclear power, solar power, wind power, and more use of the old standby, hydroelectric power. And yes, low-carbon fuels derived from solar power, i.e. biofuels. And then there is the move towards more efficient ways of using energy, e.g. hybrid vehicles. This is the hope for today’s “green movement”; that technology and governmental resolve can move humankind away from its dependence upon carbon fuels. It provides hope that these exotic new ways of generating and using power will avoid the quandary of choosing lower living standards and / or lower population growth (or even population contraction) in order to avoid massive climate-based tragedies.

This is the subject for a LONG article, or even a book. I hope someone is working on such a book. Because I think that THIS is one of the KEY QUESTIONS in the current climate debate. Yes, I said that I am not yet convinced that there even is a CO2 problem. But I do think it’s a “definite maybe”, and thus I believe that the “green tech salvation” idea needs to be examined in fine detail. Personally, I do not believe that “green tech” will allow the global population to reach 10 or 12 billion by 2050 with most everyone living at the standards that we are currently accustomed to in the US, Japan and Western Europe, and at the same time keep CO2 concentrations from going up about 50% (i.e., around 590 ppm, versus today’s 390; some scientists think that 450 is roughly the disaster threshold, and 550 would clearly cause calamity).

Green tech is moving forward, but it is still very capital-intense. You need to use a lot of energy to set it up, and most of that energy will need to come from carbon fuel. The most potent form of green energy, i.e. nuclear power, has a lot of nasty side-effects. Another promising avenue, i.e. increased efficiency, seems to have another interesting side-effect. And that is, as we find more efficient ways to use our energy sources, we at the same time find new ways to use the energy that we saved. E.g., hybrid cars – they are much more efficient, but hybrid technology will also keep many people from giving up their heavy SUV’s, as they will be cheaper to run with hybrid engines.

Well, it’s an extremely complex situation, isn’t it. Can a marriage of technology and liberal semi-socialist politics save the day (as President Obama would have us think)? If not, do we use those powerful liberal semi-socialist governments to reduce living standards? Or to stop and even reverse population growth? Or do we let things go and do our best to mitigate the tragedies as they occur (as the free-market / conservative thinkers, the Ayn Rand-ers, might espouse)? And just how sure are we that there will be such tragedies, honestly?

And how do you honestly even wrap your mind around such huge issues? (Sorry for the long spiel here; my next blog will be shorter, I promise).

◊   posted by Jim G @ 11:08 am       Read Comments (2) / Leave a Comment
 
 
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