I recently had a “change of heart” about how much voter sexism is out there amidst the voters, especially those most likely to vote in a Presidential election. A long-time friend of mine who happens to be female concluded shortly after the 2016 election that Hillary Clinton lost to Trump mainly because of an anti-female bias amidst the voting populace (mainly in men, but also in women to some degree). I disagreed with my friend regarding the word “mainly” or “primarily”. While I did not deny that there is an anti-female bias in some voters (perhaps too many voters), there were a wide variety of other, more significant factors that combined behind Donald Trump’s surprise victory.

But based on recent trends in the 2020 Democratic primary race, I am ready to move a bit closer to my friend’s position. I am now ready to admit that voter sexism, at least in some groups, is stronger than I thought. And I am also willing to admit that the groups where an anti-female bias might be significant are positioned in areas that have a greater say in the outcome of a Presidential election, due to the quirks of our Constitutional system for electing a President, i.e. the Electoral College system. Looking back to 2016, Hillary Clinton won the popular vote — so on that level, sexist bias is not an impossible hurdle. But in those key “swing states” that the Electoral College system was and still is biased towards (especially Ohio, North Carolina, Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), the fact that Hillary was a woman probably created just enough of a negative bias so as to tip the popular vote totals in those states narrowly against her, causing the Electoral College to give the Presidency to Trump.

As a footnote at this point, remember that in 2004, John Kerry didn’t do too well in those states either. But he did win Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan. Had Hillary repeated Kerry’s performance in those states, she would be President right now. Still, it is difficult to say based on that alone that sexism was the key cause for the difference. One would need to add in the fact that Hillary made mistakes  »  continue reading …