February « 2020 « The Ramblings of An Eternal Student of Life

Saturday, February 22, 2020

◊ How Trump Could LOSE to Bernie Sanders

Politics ...

As of tonight, Bernie Sanders has won the first three Democratic primary / caucuses – Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada. OK, well, Pete Buddigeig got 1 more delegate than Sanders from Iowa, even though Bernie got the most actual votes in the caucuses (all subject to a recount). Sanders narrowly beat Buttigeig in New Hampshire, but won convincingly in Nevada, with Joe Biden and Buttigeig in distant 2nd and 3rd place. The chances that Sanders will be the Democratic candidate in November are rising. The betting markets have Sanders in first place, and the 538.com probability model gives Sanders a 39% probability of getting more than half of the elected delegates, with only “no one” ahead of him at 41%. Former Mayor Bloomberg follows at 9%, with Joe Biden at 8%. All else are at 1% or less.

So, Donald Trump and his re-election staff are no doubt focusing their attention on defeating Sanders this November. A lot of pundits seem to feel that this should be doable for Trump; all that Trump has to do is to call Sanders a socialist and point to Sander’s one-time sympathies for Soviet Communism in order to beat him.

Personally, I don’t think that it will be all that easy for Trump. Sanders is doing pretty well thus far in the head-to-head polls against Trump. Furthermore, the general agreement that Trump will beat Sanders reminds me that the pundits were also quite sure at this point in 2016 » continue reading …

◊ posted by Jim G @ 10:52 pm No Comments Yet / Leave a Comment

Wednesday, February 12, 2020

◊ ELECTORAL COLLEGE – The Center Cannot Hold?

Current Affairs ... Politics ...

We are coming up on another Presidental election, and just like last time (2016), the final outcome may be close. We could have another situation where the popular vote count differs from the results of the Electoral College, as happened in 2016 and 2000. There were two other elections where this happened, but they were a long time ago, namely 1876 and 1888. In 1876, Democrat Sam Tilden won the popular vote, but Republican Rutherford Hayes won the College. In ’88, President Grover Cleveland, a Democratic, ran for a second term and won the popular vote while losing the College to Benjamin Harrison. (PS, Cleveland was a Jersey boy, hailing from Caldwell. His home is an historic site, just a few miles from where I live).

In all 4 of these elections, the Democratic candidate has been the aggrieved party. So, it’s not surprising that the Dems are now raising a lot of dust about abolishing the Electoral College system that was put in place by the writers of the US Constitution back in 1788. A recent poll (March 2019) indicated that 60% of Democratic voters want the College eliminated in favor of a straight majority vote. Not surprisingly, 64% of Republican voters wish to keep it. Among people calling themselves independents, 46% wanted to abolish the College, while 32% want to keep it.

There are plenty of arguments both for and against the College, but what it comes down to is the old Constitutional doctrine of State sovereignty and the limitation of Federal powers. The writers of the US Constitution, aware of the many political and economic abuses by the monarchies of Europe that go all the way back to the Roman Empire, worried about a federal government that would become too powerful. Their default philosophy was that » continue reading …

◊ posted by Jim G @ 9:15 pm No Comments Yet / Leave a Comment

Tuesday, February 4, 2020

◊ State of the Union: Mean

Politics ... Society ...

Tonight, President Trump gives his fourth State of the Union address to Congress and the nation. There are plenty of issues and factors that enter into a nation’s “state”: economic, military, political, cultural, technological, sociological, etc. But I think that America’s “state” can be described right now as “mean”. A lot of people are angry and are no longer holding back about it.

Robert Reich recently had an article in The Guardian about Trump’s meteoric rise to political power, discussing how he recognized and tapped into the disgruntled state of the American working class. America remains an economic dynamo and has experienced strong growth over the past decade — really over the past generation (aside from the 3 year set-back of the Great Recession of 2008). But the benefits of all that growth have been claimed largely by the wealthy and almost-wealthy.

And thus, the not-so-wealthy working class, who have been stuck with roughly the same purchasing power that they had in the 1970s (and who experience a lot more uncertainty today about keeping what they have), are increasingly convinced that “the system is rigged”, as Mr. Reich says. Both Trump and Bernie Sanders have recognized that anger and have sought to exploit it politically. » continue reading …

◊ posted by Jim G @ 5:50 pm No Comments Yet / Leave a Comment