[I haven’t posted in a while — been in a late pandemic funk. The world changed so much — and it ain’t going back to the way it was before the pandemic. Gonna have to get used to a whole new world, in some ways better, but in many ways worse. But, the nature of politics won’t change all that much from the sorry state they were in last March. So let me post a thought on that subject.]

Biden’s presidency seems to be paralleling the Obama presidency. Both started out with a Democratic House + Senate, and both got a big economic recovery bill right off the bat. Obama did a pretty good job of dealing with repairing the underlying problems in the US financial system, and Biden is doing a good job of dealing with the underlying pandemic problem.

Then they started working their first big policy-related spending bill — Obama health care, and Biden “infrastructure plus”. Things got bogged down, but with a lot of struggle, Obama got his initiative passed on a partisan basis, and Biden may well go the same route on “infrastructure plus”. Both initiatives were and are targets for eventual revenge from the GOP, they may not hold up too well against a future change of party in the White House and the “People’s House” (i.e., the Capitol).

Oh, another parallel — Both Biden and Obama talked a good line right up to inauguration day about healing partisan rifts and working across the aisle with Republicans to find lasting solutions. But, when the going got tough during their economic stimulus initiatives, they quickly gave up on compromise and pushed their slim legislative majorities to the hilt.

Back to Obama’s 1st term and maybe for Biden’s initial term too — Congress flipped at the mid-term congressional election, and no further big initiatives could get done. Obama won re-election, but not by the margins he held in 08, even against a rather weak GOP candidate. Biden or Harris might face a stronger contender in ’24 — but if that were to be Trump, who knows how that would go, all bets would be off.

So there may be a 2nd Biden or Biden-heritage term, but as with Obama II, it’s not going to be very memorable. Gridlock on immigration, no improvements to Obamacare, stall on climate change/green energy, etc. And then comes ’28 (and who knows if I will even be here then!), and voters may be in the mood once again for “something different”.

Political history won’t repeat itself, but it will rhyme!