Most scientists have come around to the global warming hypothesis. Yes, there are still some cynics; and of course there are still the industry prostitutes who do their best to sow seeds of confusion amidst the public, so as to buy more time for the coal, oil, auto and power industries. But for the most part, experts now agree that humankind, through its release of gasses created by industrial processes, heating and transportation activities, has changed the Earth’s climate. Mother nature has incredible powers to adjust to changes, but we’ve pushed her just a bit out of her range. So, things are changing.
But exactly how much they are going to change in the future, and exactly what the consequences are going to be, are still quite uncertain. I’ve done some surface level research lately on the different scenarios for the future that various people and groups have developed, based on what is known thus far. There are a few well-respected experts who foresee major calamity by the year 2100. Perhaps the gloomiest doomsday voice right now is that of James Lovelock, the guy who came up with the Gaia theory, i.e. the Earth as a large-scale living being in and of itself.
Lovelock, in his recent book (Gaia’s Revenge), sez that we’re gonna be soggy toast; both temperatures and sea levels are going to rise so as to make most of our planet uninhabitable. Humankind will enter the 22nd Century with about half as many people as we have now, concentrated as close to the North and South Poles as possible (hmmm, then the whole world will be “Pole-ish”; sorry, bad Polish joke). Civilization will have to go by the wayside, for the most part; life will be quite Hobbsian, i.e. nasty, brutish and short. Perhaps by the 23rd Century things will cool down a bit and humankind will experience a new renaissance and a new enlightenment. Lovelock holds out hope for that.
And next we have Al Gore. He isn’t quite as gloomy as Lovelock, but he’s still plenty gloomy: 300,000 deaths a year by 2030, a million species extinct by 2050, a sea rise of 20 feet by 2100. Then there’s Jim Hansen, a climate specialist working for NASA. He thinks that if the world doesn’t drastically cut greenhouse gas emissions in ten years, bad stuff will happen. Again, he doesn’t go quite as far as Lovelock, but in one article he says that sea levels could rise by 16 feet every century between now and 2400.
The middle-of-the-road scientists are being a bit more careful. In a well-respected study released in 2001 by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a UN-related agency, a number of different scenarios were examined with varying assumptions regarding world economic growth and actions to reduce greenhouse gasses. The “middle level” scenario estimates a rise in sea levels of about 16 inches by 2100. Admittedly, 16 inches of sea rise would still reek a lot of havoc; but it would not be the show-stopper that Hansen, Gore and Lovelock anticipate. The IPCC study also discussed changing rainfall conditions that will probably cause famine, but not necessarily on a world-wide basis.
You can also find studies showing even lower estimates of sea rises; a climate model developed at the Center for Climate System Research at the University of Tokyo in 2005 indicated a 12 to 15 inch rise by 2100. So what’s a few more retaining walls? Even Holland could probably handle that! (But not New Orleans).
And just to make it all the more confusing, there’s the study done for the Pentagon in 2004, which talks about upcoming famines caused not by heating, but by rapid atmospheric cooling (at least in the Northern Hemisphere). The authors believe that the melting of the ice caps will mess up the Gulf Stream and other ocean currents such that heat from the Tropics will no longer be conveyed to northern latitudes (where most of the world’s land and people are). So the tropical regions around the Equator and the seas south of it will get hotter, while much of the middle zone (the US, Europe, Russia, north China, etc.) will become cold and dry.
There are obviously a whole lot of uncertainties here. Some scientists think that we might get another 50 to 100 years of breathing room if the sun goes into a quieter phase of its sunspot cycle; one or two even think that a new ice age will soon be upon us. (However, a number of scientists are saying that solar radiation changes from sunspots and orbital wobble aren’t nearly strong enough to overwhelm greenhouse gas effects.)
We also don’t know just how quickly the Antarctic ice cap and the Greenland ice cap are going to melt. If the West Antarctic ice sheet breaks off and melts, we’re supposedly in for a 16 foot rise in ocean levels. But it wouldn’t happen instantly. Would it take 25 years? 100 years? 500 years? No one knows . . . . . although some very recent studies indicate that the ice over Greenland and Antarctica may be melting faster than previously thought. Not good.
You can also find some smart people who say that it’s all fixable and preventable. In 2004, the Princeton Environmental Institute (affilated with Princeton University) issued a study saying that we now have the technology to hold future greenhouse gas emissions steady at today’s levels, and that if we do, nothing too bad should happen. The study seems to include some very optimistic assumptions, e.g. a 50 fold increase for wind power, a doubling of nuclear power, increased ethanol production by a factor of 50 through biomass plantations using one-sixth of the world’s croplands, double fuel efficiency of cars to 60 mpg (even hybrids don’t get that yet), decrease the number of car miles traveled by HALF, replace 1400 coal electric plants with natural gas, produce hydrogen from coal at 6 times the present rate, and sequester CO2 emmissions from 800 coal electric plants (and also from the new hydrogen plants). The study doesn’t say what this would all cost or who would pay for it. I’m not sure if it were meant to be anything more than a puff piece to lull the public into thinking that global warming need not become a political issue. After all, the study was funded by $20 million in grants from BP and Ford Motor Co.
The Princeton study still has an academic cachet about it (how could anything with the Priceton brand have anything less?). If you want to see a real down-n-dirty industry approach to public awareness regarding global warming, then check out the Competitive Enterprise Institute. I’m not sure exactly who funds this group, but whomever it is, they recently inspired CEI to produce and play some 30 second commercials on TV which try to convince us that CO2 is our friend. “Some call it pollution . . . we call it life”. You can see these commercials on CEI’s web site; if you do, note the glacier commercial, where scenes of melting ice caps are run backward! Yes, CEI would like us to think that the ice caps are un-melting somehow, and that the oceans are spitting ice back up onto the land. Sorry, CEI, but you can’t make it all
go away with a cheap visual propaganda trick. Americans can be hoodwinked pretty easily by slick commercials, but you’ve gone a step too far here in assuming viewer stupidity.
So there’s a quick summary regarding the wide range of opinions about where we are and where we’re headed with global warming. Despite all the confusion, it’s pretty clear that humankind is now facing a huge challenge. If we go on burning coal and oil as we presently do, and if China and India continue to burn increasing amounts in their attempts to leave eons of poverty behind, we know that we’re headed onto unknown turf. We’re betting the farm, quite literally. The global warming situation is a real head-scratcher. At the moment, I can’t figure out just how to wrap my mind around it. So I’m gonna leave it at this for now. Hopefully I’ll be back in a few days with some more thoughts on just how humankind can reasonably approach this situation.
