{"id":180,"date":"2009-06-18T20:11:00","date_gmt":"2009-06-18T20:11:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/jimgworld.com\/blog1\/2009\/06\/18\/180\/"},"modified":"2010-05-15T14:50:45","modified_gmt":"2010-05-15T19:50:45","slug":"180","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/jimgworld.com\/blog1\/?p=180","title":{"rendered":"A GUIDE FOR THE PERPLEXED REGARDING IRAN"},"content":{"rendered":"

After reading about 25 Iran analysis articles over the past few days, I can only conclude what Churchill said about the Russians: Iran is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma. The “experts” are all over the place. Here’s a summary of what I’ve recently read about the big Iranian questions:

Q: Who really holds the cards in Iran?<\/span><\/p>\n

>> Ahmadinejad
>> Rafsanjani
>> Mousavi
>> Khamenei
>> Khatami
>> Khomeini\u2019s ghost
>> Nuri
>> Karrubi
>> Rezai
>> The Assembly of Experts
>> The Revolutionary Guard (these fellows certainly hold the guns!)
>> The Guardian Council<\/p>\n

Q: How to explain the results of the election?<\/span><\/p>\n

>> Ahmadinejad really won, despite the unsavory electoral practices involved.<\/p>\n

>> It was a fraudulent, sham election, which Ahmadinejad probably lost.<\/p>\n

>> Ahmadinejad couldn\u2019t have won in Azeri and Tabriz, Mousavi\u2019s home turf.<\/p>\n

>> They loved Ahmadinejad in Azeri and Tabriz, he was a popular former governor there.<\/p>\n

>> The polls showed Mousavi way ahead.<\/p>\n

>> The most reliable nationwide poll showed Ahadinejad way ahead.<\/p>\n

>> Iran\u2019s population is now mostly urban, and the urban factions overwhelmingly like Mousavi.<\/p>\n

>> Only a small portion of the urban population are educated pro-westerners; the majority are relatively poor, and have been well organized by Ahmadinejad\u2019s political machine, akin to the good old American urban machines. <\/p>\n

>> Iranians are sophisticated internationalists, and are tired of mullahs, sharia and rabid antisemitism.<\/p>\n

>> Iranians are mostly poor and conservative, and thus want a strong nationalist leader, traditional Islamic ways, and a victim-based mythology directed against the USA and Israel.<\/p>\n

Q: What about the Mullahs and the legacy of Ayatollah Khomeini?<\/span><\/p>\n

>> The Mullahs are in charge of Iran and the whole election outcome.<\/p>\n

>> The Mullahs are not in charge anymore, they\u2019re just trying to keep up with the Revolutionary Guard and an even more pernicious version of religious-military nationalism.<\/p>\n

>> The Mullahs are not really in charge anymore, they are trying to stay up with the forces of Shia reformation and modernization (per Reza Aslan).<\/p>\n

Q: Does radical Islamic fundamentalism and mythology regarding the restoration of Islamic empire appeal to the average Iranian?<\/span><\/p>\n

>> No, Iran is too educated and sophisticated for that; as per Reza Aslan, the Shia tradition is generally moving towards enlightened values, despite political diversions that have gained western attention. In time, Iran will become like India, China and Brazil: not necessarily pro-west, but a responsible player in the international scene. Western engagement with Iran will help speed that process.<\/p>\n

>> Yes, Ayatollah Khomeini proved that radical Islam and the glories of historical Islamic conquest still appeal to the masses. Western engagement is just Neville Chamberlain redux.<\/p>\n

>> Sort Of: Empire still appeals to Iran but perhaps more from their pre-Mohammad traditions, e.g. the great Persian empires of Cyrus, Darius, the Parthians, the Sassanids, etc. There is an ongoing cultural memory of that amidst the people of Iran, and that\u2019s what we should be worried about. The defeat of the ancient Persians at Marathon and Thermopylae could yet be avenged, along with Persian subjugation to the (Sunni) Arab Caliphates.<\/p>\n

Q: What about enriched uranium and the missile program?<\/span><\/p>\n

>> Iran is planning to obliterate Israel in a pre-emptive nuclear missile strike, so as to vindicate the great empires of their past, and to fulfill the apocalyptic \u201chidden Imam\u201d religious myths of Shia Islam. Bloody, suicidal jihad as practiced by radical Sunni groups is not unheard of amidst Shiite fanatics. This attack might well be carried out by Iran\u2019s clients in Palestine and Lebanon using nuclear-tipped short-range rockets. Those would have a better chance to evade Israel\u2019s missile defenses, versus high-altitude missiles launched from Iran\u2019s soil. A large, well-orchestrated attack from close-in could thus knock out Israel\u2019s ability to retaliate (at least with their nukes; a jihadist would hardly care if a few old Israel F-15s got through and dropped conventional bombs on Tehran). Iran could then arguably wash its hands before the world of the blood from such a holocaust. <\/p>\n

No one would believe that Iran wasn\u2019t behind such an attack, but a reserve of long-range nuclear missiles capable of hitting Rome, Berlin, Paris and London might cause Europe to lose its nerve. Iran does not currently have such missiles, but North Korea is getting close. By 2016, the last year of the Obama administration, Iran could have such capacity. The Iranian military planners are counting on Obama\u2019s continuing disinterest in building up American missile defenses, his ambivalent support for Israel, his continuing desire to \u201cengage\u201d and compromise with their regime, his party\u2019s \u2018never again\u2019 policy regarding what the Bush administration did in Iraq, and America\u2019s continuing economic woes, in their plans to eliminate Israel without suffering nuclear retaliation.<\/p>\n

BONUS: Those reserve missiles can also decimate Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Syria, etc. The Arab Middle East would be subjugated to Iranian dominance in a post-Israel Middle East. Hezbollah and Hamas will establish a pro-Iranian client state in former Israeli territory once radioactive fallout levels settle down, as an \u201cIranian anchor\u201d amist the Sunni Arab world.<\/p>\n

>> Despite the rhetoric, Iran is not really interested in an Israeli nuclear holocaust; it\u2019s leadership is not crazy, they wouldn\u2019t take the risk of nuclear retaliation by Israel and the US. Many clerics are against nuclear weapons, some have even declared that the Quran forbids their use. Iran wants enriched uranium and missiles and anti-Israeli clients simply to gain respect from the international community, and will respond to western negotiations to avoid weaponization in return for open trade, development capital, and a say in regional politics. (Recall that this almost seemed to work with North Korea; almost.) No one in the 21st Century dreams of wide-spread dominance and empire-building as Hitler, Stalin, Queen Victoria, and other leaders once did.<\/p>\n

Q: What about Ahmadinejad\u2019s continuing denials of the Nazi Holocaust against the Jews?<\/span><\/p>\n

>> It\u2019s not taken seriously by most Iranians, given their education and cultural sophistication. It\u2019s just a function of internal political friction between the more conservative and liberal theocrats, and will disappear once the growing forces favoring freedom and enlightenment finally sweep them aside.<\/p>\n

>> It doesn\u2019t play well amidst the university crowd in Tehran, but it is getting traction amidst the poor of Iran. Ahmadinejad and his military supporters are getting the average Iranian ready to predicate in a new Jewish holocaust, which will in turn lead to Iran\u2019s subjugation of the Arab states surrounding it in the Middle East. The Persian Empire will be restored, clear to the shores of the Mediterranean.<\/p>\n

Q: Do the protests signal the start of an Iranian revolution for freedom?<\/span><\/p>\n

>>Yes. There is a generational shift at work in Iran. The conservative political activists whose formational experiences were the 1979 overthrow of the Shah and the rise of the Ayatollahs, along with the bloody war with Iraq in the early 1980s, are now being challenged by a younger generation that is more educated and open-min
\nded. Time and demographics are on the side of the reformers.<\/p>\n

>> Eventually. The demonstrations certainly do reflect the cries and struggles of a people yearning to be free. But the powerful Revolutionary Guard is cracking down, pushing the mullahs aside and imposing a military dictatorship, akin to what has happened in Burma and what was once quite common in South America (recall Argentina in the 1980s). This is basically what Reza Aslan tells us<\/a>. But it won\u2019t last, it\u2019s only a matter of time and blood until the people emerge victorious over the despots. Shiism has historically been an intellectual and adaptive force in the Moslem world, and will ultimately support a \u201cPersian spring\u201d.<\/p>\n

>> No. The demonstrations are not a nation-wide phenomenon. They only reflect the views and feelings of a small percentage of the Iranian population, i.e. the highly educated professional class centered in northern Tehran. The majority of the country is still poor, uneducated, traditional, and conservative. The faltering, mismanaged economy will insure that an educated, westernized middle class will not spread throughout the nation; the average Iranian does not and will not have access to Twitter. The majority of the people currently support a strong, despotic government, just as most Russians seem to. Despite some green shoots, democracy and freedom will not take root in Iran, just as they faltered over the past 20 years in the former empire across Iran\u2019s northern border. Iran is moving from an Islamic theocracy to an Islamic military dictatorship (don\u2019t forget that Mohammed was as much a military commander as a prophet). As in 1979, a brief flourishing of youthful idealism in the streets of Tehran is going to lead to something uglier than what preceded it.<\/p>\n

YIKES! <\/span> Given all this uncertainty, it might be prudent in the short term to remain non-committal, as Obama has done. We need more time to get better information. BUT, we also need to get ready for the worst, and not assume that a popular Iranian uprising is going to have a positive outcome, as Jimmy Carter mistakenly did back in 1979. Whatever this is or is not, it can not be seen as an extension of the “Obama Revolution” here in the USA.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

After reading about 25 Iran analysis articles over the past few days, I can only conclude what Churchill said about the Russians: Iran is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma. The “experts” are all over the place. Here’s a summary of what I’ve recently read about the big Iranian questions:Q: Who really […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[24],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/jimgworld.com\/blog1\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/180"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/jimgworld.com\/blog1\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/jimgworld.com\/blog1\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jimgworld.com\/blog1\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jimgworld.com\/blog1\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=180"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/jimgworld.com\/blog1\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/180\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1552,"href":"https:\/\/jimgworld.com\/blog1\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/180\/revisions\/1552"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/jimgworld.com\/blog1\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=180"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jimgworld.com\/blog1\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=180"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jimgworld.com\/blog1\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=180"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}