{"id":5075,"date":"2015-01-08T20:26:47","date_gmt":"2015-01-09T01:26:47","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/jimgworld.com\/blog1\/?p=5075"},"modified":"2015-01-05T20:39:24","modified_gmt":"2015-01-06T01:39:24","slug":"can-sciam-stop-the-polar-vortex","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/jimgworld.com\/blog1\/?p=5075","title":{"rendered":"Can SciAm Stop the Polar Vortex?"},"content":{"rendered":"

In December, 2012, there was an article in Scientific American (called \u201cWinters of Our Discontent<\/a>\u201d by Charles Greene) saying that global warming was causing the Arctic ice cap to melt, and that such melting would mess up the usual Arctic air oscillation patterns. As a result, the eastern half of the USA would allegedly experience very cold winters starting in 2012-13. So, SciAm was warning us to expect a cold winter in return for the sins of our carbon-based civilization. But it didn’t happen that year; the winter of 2012-13 was mostly normal here in the east, temperature-wise. However, we did get socked the next year (last winter); the polar vortex kept on dipping downward from Canada and everyone east of the Mississippi did a fair amount of shivering, especially in February and early March. (And yes, I acknowledge that the shivering is relative; we coastal people who are used to 25 degree winters were really suffering at 10; but you inland people had to get down below zero before you started noticing it). <\/p>\n

So, does this prove that global warming is here, clear for everyone to see in the eastern USA to see? (Not to mention the far West, with its extended heat and drought). The experts are arguing both ways on that idea. Recall that since 2000, we’ve had a very active hurricane pattern in the Atlantic; according to Weather Underground<\/a>, 2003, 2005, 2008, 2010, 2011 and 2012 were on the top 10 list of hurricane seasons since 1851. These years gave us famous storms like Katrina, Wilma and Sandy. Various articles appeared attributing<\/a> this trend to global warming. However, some studies go the other way<\/a> on this. Since 2012, the Atlantic basin seems to have quieted down; 2014 was one of the least active years for hurricanes on record. IMHO, it’s still too soon to conclude<\/a> that bigger and more frequent hurricanes are going to become a way of life because of CO2. <\/p>\n

But what about those cold waves here in the east? We are in one right now, the first Arctic blast for this winter. Will this be another icebox winter like last year? <\/p>\n

Interestingly enough, SciAm just doubled-down on the Arctic melting \/ cold eastern weather connection by publishing an article by Weather Underground meteorologist Jeff Masters (\u201cThe Jet Stream is Getting Weird<\/a>\u201d in the December 2014 issue). Masters is quite convinced that the reduced state of Arctic ice cover is directly causing the northern jet stream to loop downward more frequently, bathing the eastern US in frigid air. And that the whole phenomenon stems directly from increased atmospheric CO2 caused by human civilization. <\/p>\n

Well, two years ago when SciAm published a December article on this, we had a fairly normal winter. So, I’m hoping that this trend will be repeated. I’m not trying to deny that global warming is real and do not contend that increasing CO2 levels in the atmosphere aren’t having an effect. However, I do believe that it’s premature to say that we’re going to be stuck with polar weather here in the east from now on (or likewise, with bigger, more frequent hurricanes). Global warming is not simply affecting the Arctic and the northern jet stream. It’s having effects throughout the world (although admittedly, changes in the Arctic are more dramatic and apparent than for most of the planet). Other countervailing factors could kick-in. For example, there is ongoing discussion about why the El Nino effect is also \u201cgetting weird\u201d<\/a>. There are possible ocean heating effects<\/a> going on in the Pacific, and I have to believe that some of that energy is eventually going to find its way into the mix, potentially acting as a moderating factor against the polar vortex effects. (And possibly giving the Pacific more typhoons and cyclonic storms, as happened this past summer).<\/p>\n

But we shall see. All I’m saying right now is that weather is very complex, and just because we had a cold winter (and a nasty \u201csuperstorm\u201d a few years ago), I’m not yet ready to vote for a crash program to reduce carbon output. I agree that something has to be done to respond to global warming, but I don’t think it’s time yet to hit the panic button. (Carbon use will probably shrink of its own accord in coming decades because of technology and market forces, as alternate energy sources become cheaper and more effective; admittedly, a minor carbon-use tax earmarked to accelerate non-carbon technologies could speed up this process.) For the time being, I’m hoping that the \u201cSciAm inverse effect\u201d will kick in once again (and if it does, that SciAm publishes more alarmist articles on global warming in the future). Check back with me on this in March.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In December, 2012, there was an article in Scientific American (called \u201cWinters of Our Discontent\u201d by Charles Greene) saying that global warming was causing the Arctic ice cap to melt, and that such melting would mess up the usual Arctic air oscillation patterns. As a result, the eastern half of the USA would allegedly experience […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[33],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/jimgworld.com\/blog1\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5075"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/jimgworld.com\/blog1\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/jimgworld.com\/blog1\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jimgworld.com\/blog1\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jimgworld.com\/blog1\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=5075"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/jimgworld.com\/blog1\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5075\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5080,"href":"https:\/\/jimgworld.com\/blog1\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5075\/revisions\/5080"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/jimgworld.com\/blog1\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=5075"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jimgworld.com\/blog1\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=5075"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jimgworld.com\/blog1\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=5075"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}