Me and some of the other political junkies at work have plotted out a strategy for Barack Obama’s fall campaign against John McCain. Using the on-line Electoral College calculator, we figured out that Obama has to hold all of the states that John Kerry won in 2004, and regain Iowa (which Gore won in 2000), and then pick up either New Mexico (which Gore won) or Nevada, plus Colorado. We’re pretty sure that McCain is going to take Ohio and Florida, so we’d give up on those states. But Iowa seemed impressed with Barack (they got him going with his caucus victory back in January), and New Mexico, Nevada and Colorado have had significant growth in their Hispanic populations, which might swing Democratic. So, it looks to us like Hispanics in the central West are going to be the pivotal voting group this November. Which means that Obama needs Bill Richardson as his running mate. Richardson, Governor of New Mexico and a Latino himself despite the Anglo last name, probably guessed as much when he betrayed the Clintons last month by endorsing Obama. Bill can obviously do the math himself.

So the critical state to watch on Election Night will be Colorado, assuming that Iowa falls in line for Barack and that McCain doesn’t pull an upset in Pennsylvania, Michigan or Minnesota (which is not impossible). If Colorado goes for Obama, then Richardson’s New Mexico could seal the deal (with Nevada as backup if McCain’s popularity in Arizona somehow seeped eastward). Interestingly, there are at least two “not entirely unlikely” scenarios under with Obama and McCain would gain a tie in Electoral College votes; first, if New Hampshire go for McCain (recall that Gore lost NH in 2000, and McCain seems popular there) but Colorado and New Mexico or Nevada go for Obama; and second, if New Hampshire, New Mexico and Nevada go with Obama but Colorado stays Republican.

What happens then? Well, the Twelfth Amendment would suddenly become a very popular topic. Basically, the US House of Representatives would select the winner, based upon one vote for each state delegation. I’m not entirely sure, but I believe that 26 states currently have a Democratic majority in the House. If this holds, Obama would win. But this is still a bit shaky, as the vote would be taked by the new Congress elected in November, not by the current one (as the Electoral College needs to go thru the motions in December and early January). Two of the states that are currently Democratic have 1-person delegations; ironically, those are North and South Dakota, which both tend to vote Republican in Presidential elections. Both Reps are up for re-election this November; if one state swings GOP (South Dakota’s Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin is said to be vulnerable), or if another state’s delegation shifts into a tie, then the state-by-state vote in the House could also end up tied.

At that point, things get pretty weird. Even weirder, the Senate would choose the new Vice President, based on a majority of Senators. If the Democratic majority in the Senate holds, then we could have a Democratic VP before we know who the President might be. But as to who would be in charge, well – the confusion following the 2000 election (and the current confusion in the primary battles between Hilary and Barack) would seem like just a warm-up act. This could get interesting!

SIDE BAR: It’s also interesting that two of the four states that begin with “New” will play significant roles in the November election. That made me think about the tradition of naming a state or a city after another place while using “New” as a prefix. I wonder if this is mainly an American thing, given our historical identity with being a “new start” relative to the stodgy traditions of Europe. From what little I could tell after consulting a world map, there don’t appear to be too many “new” cities or regions in other nations. There are some, e.g. Novo Sarajevo and Nowa Huta and Nueva Ecija, and New Zealand of course, but not that many. The idea of newness just doesn’t go over everywhere. Wonder if there’s a “New Persia” somewhere in eastern Iraq?