There’s a book out called The Roman Predicament by Harold James, and it may be worth some attention. I haven’t read it yet, but the reviews say that it compares the Roman Empire’s decline and fall with modern trends here in America. I believe that Mr. James concludes that it’s not too late yet for the USA, but there’s a lot to worry about.

Hmmmm. The Roman Empire had way too many civil wars; luckily we’ve pretty much avoided that, except for the big one back in Abe Lincoln’s day. However, our national political process, while not bloody, seems to get nastier and more divisive with every passing year. Now it’s turning into red state versus blue state, a form of cultural war. That could weaken the nation if this trend turns out to be more than an illusion.

The Roman Empire was really on the way out when it could no longer get its own citizens to serve in its armies and had to depend on hired barbarian tribes for its defense. Well, things haven’t gotten that bad yet here; we don’t depend upon Hamas or the Taliban to do our fighting. But our armed forces are increasingly recruited from the lower economic classes, the urban inner-cities and rural counties that are becoming more and more disenfranchised from the American economic mainstream. The services continue to exhibit dedication and patriotism, but you’ve got to wonder if increasing cynicism over the Iraqi involvement / stalemate will permanently damage our military’s morale.

Another possible comparison point: Rome was vexed by its big, organized enemies in the East (Persia, Mesopotamia), but was ultimately done-in by small roving tribes. We had a big eastern enemy called the Soviet Union, and today we still have a troublesome rival in China. But it’s the unorganized Middle Eastern terrorists that worry me the most, just as the Goths and Huns and Berbers did the most damage to Rome.

And then, of course, there’s religion. When Rome was at its best (which wasn’t very often — maybe a few decades in the 1st and 2nd centuries), it took a liberal attitude about differing religious beliefs and practices out in the provinces — including Judaism and Christianity. But then it over-reacted to early Christian intolerance for other (admittedly cruder) mythologies by persecuting those Christians; and when Christianity eventually overthrew paganism, the formerly persecuted Christians returned the favor. The USA in the second half of the 20th Century seemed to reach a peak of toleration for differing spiritual beliefs. But now the pendulum seems to be swinging back towards Christian triumph. I wouldn’t say that the First Amendment is in any immediate danger, but the Bush Administration certainly has moved the state a bit closer to the chapel; more so than what would have been acceptable in 1970.

I think that the biggest long-term problem for America regards distribution of income and wealth. The American economy is an incredible wealth generator. There has been nothing like it anywhere else in the world. Per-capita income has risen incredibly over the past quarter century, even after adjusting for price increases. But unfortunately, many people haven’t benefited economically from this; their income and wealth levels have remained essentially flat over this period. And the poor seem to stay poor; their prospects seem to get worse. The ladder of social mobility doesn’t extend all the way down to the lower socioeconomic levels any more. It’s roughly true that the top one-third of the population has seen their incomes and wealth levels rise amazingly; the middle third has pretty much stagnated; and the lower third has seen its standards of living erode over the past couple of decades. If the concentration trend continues to get worse such that a broader and broader swath of American families face depressing economic prospects while a small group continues to accumulate tremendous wealth, you’ve got to wonder if the poor are going to continue doing this nation’s dirty work cheerfully, especially fighting its wars overseas so as to protect its economy.

As Mr. James indicates, I don’t think it’s too late yet to prevent an American collapse; even a genteel decay scenario can yet be avoided. But something has to be done to better share the wealth and the benefits, even if it slows up the rate of economic growth that America is capable of (when not burdened by concerns of conscience and social justice). One area where economic unfairness is especially apparent right now regards access to health care. If the working class and the poor are left to bleed in the streets, then what do they have left to lose once an exploitive demagogue finally comes along (and one always does come along in such a situation)??