Kevin Phillips has a new book out called “American Theocracy”. If you’re a fan of current affairs and foreign policy, this is old news to you. American Theocracy is quite a hit amidst the wonk crowd. I haven’t read it yet, but I did see a couple of good book reviews. So I know that Phillips has three major themes in his book. One theme is that the true reason behind President G.W. Bush’s Iraqi campaign is OIL, and our continuing dependence upon it.

Well, that would help to explain Mr. Bush’s recent statements that our troops are gonna be in Iraq for a long, long, long time. (We shall see how well the American public likes that idea this fall, in the mid-term Congressional elections.) It seems quite clear to me that Iraq is now having a civil war, and there’s not much our troops can do to stop it. About all we can do is to continue training the Iraqi military and police forces, and pray that they will act as referees and not as combatants. After that, it’s up to the Kurds, Shiites and Sunnis of greater Mesopotamia whether they want to share a nation or not. In my opinion, our troops should be out of there by year’s end, other than a few training brigades. OR, we should leave it at the United Nations’ doorstep; let’s see if they want to organize a truly multi-national peacekeeping mission in Iraq. (I know that France and Germany and Russia may well cop out on this; but until we ask, we can’t complain about their hypocracy).

But if oil is the thing, as Mr. Phillips argues, then you can see why our President wants to keep our guys billeted in Iraq indefinitely. As one oil analyst said, think of it as a US military base over a huge oil reserve. World oil prices continue to creep upward past $60 per barrel, despite the energy optimists’ predictions that expanded exploration and production inspired by high prices would soon have us drowning in “Texas tea” (anyone remember the theme song to The Beverly Hillbillies?).

So I agree with Mr. Phillips that Mr. Bush was never serious about weapons of mass destruction and Al Qaeda ties as a rationale for going to war in Iraq. It was quite convenient, but not really all that relevant, that Saddam Hussein was a bona-fide bad guy; but you can find plenty of similar bad guys in places like Sudan and the Congo. Mr. Bush has no intention of sending our troops over there (except perhaps Nigeria, where there is a lot of oil). Our bottom line in Iraq was and still is OIL, the oil that we crave like junkies crave heroin. We’re running out of affordable fixes, and Iraq is the last big score. NY Times columnist Thomas Friedman has urged Mr. Bush to make energy independence the theme of his second presidential term; but GWB appears to have no intention of putting the American energy junkie into rehab. Junkies can be so difficult to deal with. Just get them another fix, it’s so much easier (in the short run).

Just to crow a bit, I said pretty much what Mr. Phillips is now saying about three years ago. Here’s the PROOF.